On Thursday and Friday, several new polls were released showing the tenuous position of the Democrat Party heading into November’s elections. The overturning of the Constitution has not led to a significant rebound. Roe V. WadeThis status quo seems to be maintained, as Republicans hold a slight lead in the generic ballot for each of the three previous surveys.
Biden’s approval numbers are even worse news for Democrats, with the president falling below 30 percent in key states like Nevada. Historically, a second-year president this down in the dumps is a huge drag on their party for the first midterm, and as I’ve said before, there’s no reason to believe things will be different this go around.
With that said, there’s a new “hope and cope” spreading: That Donald Trump will declare a 2024 run and sink Republicans in 2022.
Midterms are generally referenda on the president; that’s why Democrats are on track to have a bad time.
Trump may become the predominant story if Trump does so. The midterms might be a proxy for Trump vs. Biden. That’s not a great shift for the GOP. https://t.co/K48VqwHCGK
— Jacob Rubashkin (@JacobRubashkin) July 2, 2022
There are a lot of things to be skeptical of here, from Maggie Haberman’s report to the implications of the report even if it’s true.
For example, there’s little reason to believe Trump is actually going to declare before the midterms. Many people believe Trump is going to declare before the midterms to exert pressure on DOJ regarding a potential criminal indictment. The logic goes that if Trump is officially a candidate for 2024, he can point and say “This is all politics.”
But, it’s just a little bit cleverer than half of what I see. Trump’s political complaint isn’t going to stop the DOJ from continuing its pursuit of justice. Any prosecution that relies on the thinly defended arguments made by the January 6th Committee would face a large backlash. He is also an expert in marketing and knows it’s best to maintain the hype train. In short, I don’t think Trump is going to blow his big announcement on an ineffective, desperate-looking attempt to undercut Merrick Garland.
Still, even if Haberman’s report is true and Trump jumps into the race this early, I see no evidence it will affect the midterms. Democrats have been playing that game for the last year and a half, and it’s failed miserably, from Virginia to Texas. Trump is baked into the cake at this point, and that includes the idea that he’ll run again. Besides, Biden himself is not on any ballot in November, and it’s tough to make something a referendum between two people who aren’t running for office.
Then there’s the actual issue-level stuff to consider. Trump’s presidency, average gas prices were just above $2 per gallon. Inflation was low and Russia wasn’t invading Europe. Retirements weren’t being lost in the stock market. It would seem rather ridiculous to suggest that people will vote for Democrats in 2022, ignoring all of the current failures, because they are really scared of Trump who…delivered good results?
The idea that Trump 2024’s early formation is going to cause problems for Republicans 2022 makes absolutely no sense. It’s the epitome of a too-inside-the-beltway take that believes people care more about January 6th than high grocery prices.
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