Nate Silver of Five Thirty-Eight joined Martha Raddatz on ABC’s “This Week” on Sunday to discuss his current analysis of how the 2022 midterms are shaping up.
Silver noted the key question was whether Republicans are favored to take back Congress, pointing out there are a lot of factors working against Democrats, not the least of which is Joe Biden’s dismal approval ratings, currently below 40 percent per the Five Thirty-Eight average. Inflation is still above eight percent.
Further, Silver points to historical precedent: “The President’s party has lost seats in the House in 19 of the past 21 midterms.” They’re estimating roughly three dozen “highly competitive” House races and predict that Democrats are likely in deep trouble, despite the base being energized from the recent SCOTUS overturn of Roe v. WadeThis puts the chances of Democrats keeping the House at 10-15%.
Predictions for the Senate are more precise. The map is more favorable to Democrats, as they’re only defending 14 seats, while the Republicans are defending 21. All the seats Democrats defend are located in states won by Joe Biden.
Silver points out that Republicans took some risk with their Senate seats. They nominated political neophytes in Pennsylvania like Dr. Mehmet Ob or those with some baggage in Georgia, such as Herschel Walk in Georgia. Conclusion?
“Even though Republicans only need to gain a net of one seat in the Senate, our model thinks the chance of that is only about 50 percent. In other words, it’s a toss-up.”
“Even though Republicans only need to gain a net of one seat in the Senate, our model thinks the chance of that is only about 50 percent. In other words, it’s a toss-up.” @NateSilver538 has the latest 2022 election analysis: https://t.co/DZrZB3dU0j pic.twitter.com/0hn9pqgHYy
— This Week (@ThisWeekABC) July 3, 2022
In sum, Silver says, while the House looks solid for Republicans, the Senate is “anyone’s guess.”
It doesn’t matter what stock one puts in polling models or how many people are using them, the fact that every race has a critical role is crucial if Republicans want to take control of Congress.
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