Two-hour-long telephone conversation that was one of the most significant of post-Cold War’s post-Cold War was held on Friday, March 18, 2022. The crisis in Ukraine was discussed by President Joseph Biden of the United States and Xi Jinping from China. This discussion outlined the US-China positions regarding the conflict between Ukraine (Russia) and its Russian Federation counterpart, now at 23 days.
The United States noted our position — that we want to draw the conflict to an end by compelling Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin to abandon his invasion of Ukraine, through a regime of economic sanctions against Russia and military assistance to the Ukrainian government of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Undoubtedly, Mr. Putin has taken on more in Ukraine than he expected. The Ukrainians have proven to be more determined than Russia’s Federal Security Service’s (FSB’s) foreign intelligence branch had indicated to Mr. Putin. They believed that Mr. Zelenskyy will flee Ukraine when they enter, which may have been inaccurately interpreted as believing that he would act in the same way as another US ally, Mohamed Ashraf Ghani. This was seven months before he left for Afghanistan. Also, they believed the Ukrainians would be open to receiving the Russian army. The FSB made a mistake and Putin allegedly placed senior officers under house arrest.
Because the Ukranian resistance has been so strong, it is said that Putin replaced some of the commanders of the operation. The result of this change, based on press coverage of the war, is a shift from the relative avoidance of targeting civilians to one of deliberately attacking ordinary Ukrainians to break the morale of the people and force Mr. Zelenskyy to accept Moscow’s ceasefire terms.
Within this morass, the Russian military seems to be finding itself having to shift from its assumption of a “cake walk,” short war — where they would replace a corrupt government with a friendly one at low cost. The Russian military now finds itself in a situation where soldiers and equipment are becoming more expensive and logistics to support it are getting scarce.
Ukraine sought outside help before hostilities even began. The country has developed a more sophisticated process of replenishment in order to support its war effort, than the slow-moving Russians. They are starting to adjust and realize they have to be able to prevail with more soldiers, ammunition, fuel and food. And Mr. Putin has reached out to his “friend” Xi Jinping, hoping to obtain help to counterweight the Western support for Ukraine.
China should not do this. Biden went the extra mile to talk directly about this with China’s counterpart. The White House as well as the Chinese government issued statements about the telephone call. I believe it’s important enough to every American that you take the opportunity to read it firsthand. What is important to bear in mind, as you watch the delicate diplomatic maneuvering of the true superpowers of this planet, is that you and I are not the intended audience of these statements — Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy are.
Superpowers
Intentionally terse tone, the White House’s phone conversation readout is.
President Joseph R. Biden, Jr. spoke today with President Xi Jinping of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The conversation focused on Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. Biden presented the United States’ and Allies’ views on the current crisis. Biden outlined our efforts to stop and respond to this invasion. He also imposed costs on Russia. Biden described the consequences and implications of China providing material support for Russia’s violent attacks on Ukrainian civilians and cities. He reiterated his support of a diplomatic solution to this crisis. Both leaders agreed that it was important to maintain open communication in order to control the rivalry between the two countries. He reiterated the U.S. position on Taiwan remains unchanged and stressed that any unilateral change to the status quo would be opposed by the United States. The two leaders tasked their teams to follow up on today’s conversation in the critical period ahead.
The Chinese debrief on the phone call comes from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China. It reads:
“On the evening of 18 March, President Xi Jinping had a video call with US President Joe Biden at the request of the latter. Both Presidents exchanged candid views about China-US relations and discussed issues such as the Ukraine situation and others of mutual concern.
President Biden said that 50 years ago, the US and China made the important choice of issuing the Shanghai Communiqué. 50 years later, it is clear that the US-China relationship is at a crucial moment. This relationship will determine the future direction of the global order in the 21st Century. Biden reiterated that the US does not seek a new Cold War with China; it does not aim to change China’s system; the revitalization of its alliances is not targeted at China; the US does not support “Taiwan independence”; and it has no intention to seek a conflict with China. US wants to engage in honest dialogue with China. They are willing to work closely with China to maintain the one-China policy. The US also intends to manage differences and compete effectively to grow the relationship. Biden stated that he is willing to remain in contact with President Xi, to help set the course for US-China relations.
President Xi observed the major changes in the international scene since the November virtual meeting. There are serious threats to the prevailing trend towards peace and development. The world is not stable or tranquil. As permanent members of the UN Security Council and the world’s two leading economies, China and the US must not only guide their relations forward along the right track, but also shoulder their share of international responsibilities and work for world peace and tranquility.
President Xi stated that he and Vice President Biden agree that China and America must respect one another, live in peace, avoid conflict, and encourage communication between the sides at all levels. President Biden has just reiterated that the US does not seek to have a new Cold War with China, to change China’s system, or to revitalize alliances against China, and that the US does not support “Taiwan independence” or intend to seek a conflict with China. “I take these remarks very seriously,” said President Xi.
China and the US relationship has been facing increasing difficulties, President Xi stated. What’s worth noting in particular is that some people in the US have sent a wrong signal to “Taiwan independence” forces. This is very risky. The bilateral relationships will be disrupted if there is a mishandling of Taiwan’s question. China expects that the US will be attentive to this matter. The direct cause for the current situation in the China-US relationship is that some people on the US side have not followed through on the important common understanding reached by the two Presidents and have not acted on President Biden’s positive statements. The US has misperceived and miscalculated China’s strategic intention.
President Xi said that China and the US have had and continue to have differences. It is important to manage these differences. It is best for both parties to have a growing relationship.
Both sides had a discussion about the current situation in Ukraine.
Biden gave an overview of the US position and said that he was open to communication with China to stop the crisis from worsening.
President Xi stated that China doesn’t want the Ukraine situation to become this. China is a strong supporter of peace and war. This is embedded in China’s history and culture. China draws a decision independently, weighing the merits of every matter. China supports international law and internationally recognized norms that govern international relations. China is a signatory to the UN Charter. They support the vision of a common, comprehensive and cooperative security. These are the major principles that underpin China’s approach to the Ukraine crisis. China presented a six point initiative regarding the humanitarian situation within Ukraine. It is also ready to continue humanitarian aid to Ukraine and other countries that are affected. Each side must support Russia and Ukraine to have a dialogue that produces results, and leads to peace. NATO and the US should engage in dialogue with Russia, to solve the Ukraine crisis and reduce security fears for Russia and Ukraine.
President Xi stressed that with the need to fight COVID-19 on the one hand and protect the economy and people’s livelihood on the other, things are already very difficult for countries around the world. We, as leaders of large countries, must consider how we can address the global hotspots. But, most importantly, it is important to keep in view global stability, and billions of lives, and to be able to effectively deal with them. The people would be hurt if there were too many and unjustified sanctions. These sanctions could lead to serious crises in the global economy, trade, finance energy and food as well as supply and manufacturing chains. They can also cause irreversible economic losses. You need to be able to think clearly and remain rational no matter how complex the situation. No matter what the situation, it is important to have political courage in order to make room for peace and allow for settlement. As two Chinese sayings go, “It takes two hands to clap.” “He who tied the bell to the tiger must take it off.” It is imperative that the parties involved demonstrate political will and find a proper settlement in view of both immediate and long-term needs. Others can and should help to create those conditions. It is essential to maintain dialogue and negotiate, reduce civilian casualties and prevent humanitarian crises, and end hostilities immediately. A lasting solution is for all major nations to be respectful of each other and reject the Cold War mentality. They should also refrain from basing their security on confrontation with blocs. This will allow them to build a sustainable, balanced and effective security structure for both the region and the rest of the world. China has done its part to ensure peace and will play an active role in the future.
Both Presidents agreed the video conference was constructive. They directed their teams to promptly follow up and take concrete actions to put China-US relations back on the track of steady development, and make respective efforts for the proper settlement of the Ukraine crisis.”
Analyse
What is the message from the superpowers for Mr. Putin and Herr. Zelenskyy then?
Message one: The United States is committed continue to exert stern pressure on Russia to reconsider its course of action and seek to end the incursion against Ukraine using sanctions and aid.
Message 2:China demands that Ukraine, Russia and other countries in the region find ways to end the crisis.
Message three:Two of the world’s largest, at $300 trillion each, economic superpowers share similar concerns. They are speaking to one another, aware of differences but not allowing these to detract from the main objective of ending this episode.
Let’s just say that this conversation was one in which either the superpower or the circumstance fixed the target while the other moved it. So is human behavior when faced with existential, extreme risks. This was the case for the Putin-created situation. While Mr. Putin might want to conquer and divide these highly dependent national interests, it is not enough to persuade either side. It’s time to for Russia to stop believing its own propaganda and start listening to what the world is sobering up to.
There could be a lot of things wrong. Yes. That’s the scary part. It seems that neither China nor the USA want it to. This could make it possible for Russia or Ukraine to stop the tiger from roaring.
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