Joe Manchin Addressed His Democrat Colleagues Last Night

Yesterday, it was announced that Senate Democrats would hold a conference call to discuss their next moves following Joe Manchin’s nuking of the Build Back Better budget reconciliation bill. There was some speculation as to whether Manchin would be there, but it’s now clear that he will.

Not only was he on the call, but he spoke about his decision and what’s next. Here’s how that went, at least according to whoever leaked this to CNN’s Manu Raju.

Manchin addressed the caucus, I’m told. He said he’s consistent for the past five months, saying inflation is a problem and noting he has been raising geopolitical concerns as well. A source said they needed tax reform in order to get the rich to pay more.

— Manu Raju (@mkraju) December 22, 2021

Schumer informed caucus that they will still have a procedural vote regarding BBB. In Senate language, he said, per source: “In the new year, we will have a vote on the Motion to Proceed to the House-passed bill.”

— Manu Raju (@mkraju) December 22, 2021

There’s more, but let’s stop there. The throw-in about taxing the rich has to do with Manchin’s support for repealing the Trump tax cuts. He may think he can help his Democratic colleagues soften the blow by offering something that keeps their juices running. However, the BBB Bill included a large SALT tax exemption for the wealthy. This seems to be in contradiction with the goal. Perhaps the mention of taxing the rich also hints at the SALT “reform” being one of the stumbling blocks for Manchin?

But he also brings up inflation and adding to the debt, which again would indicate there’s little room for compromise. There is no world in which the BBB bill, even stripped down, doesn’t add to the debt over the long term. Manchin points out that it is more expensive than the CBO initial estimate. This estimate was derived from a variety of budgetary tricks, such as. Limiting program lengths compared with years of funding, and promising to expand those programs later.

Schumer said that he will vote to approve the House version of BBB bill. That will ultimately fail given Manchin’s opposition to it.

Manchin stated to his coworkers that he would continue talking per source but that he had many concerns about current bill.

— Manu Raju (@mkraju) December 22, 2021

Schumer to his caucus last night, per Dem source: “I know we are all frustrated at this outcome. But we won’t give up on BBB.  Period.  We won’t stop working on it until we pass a bill.” (It will take quite some time to get to 50 votes, if that’s possible)

— Manu Raju (@mkraju) December 22, 2021

I know everyone on the right is just waiting for Manchin to fold, but color me skeptical this is anything more than reconciliatory language that doesn’t actually lead anywhere. His home state, West Virginia’s electoral dynamics haven’t changed since then and will continue to do so.

Instead, it feels more like Manchin is holding back, just as I thought before he declared his intent to repeal the BBB bill. He’s now successfully pushed the vote into next year. After that failed vote, negotiation will need to start again. Manchin seems to not be close to the current language. It’s the playbook he just ran all over again.

But it’s not just Manchin. While he has represented the public foil for Democrats on this issue, Kyrsten Sinema has also expressed her opposition from the sidelines, and rumors are that there are multiple other senators who are against it but don’t want to say so publicly. Additionally, next year will be an election year which could complicate matters for Democrats in competitive regions of the country.

We do know that even if something passes, it will only be symbolic. This is in contrast to the almost $2 trillion bill currently being voted upon. That would mean that Republicans will have to settle for less in a country with Democrats unified over the government.