We are now six weeks into the “three hour tour” that Russian President Vladimir Putin greenlighted for February 24. It seemed easy enough. The plan was to destroy Ukraine’s army and replace the president with a Russian puppet. It also aimed at carving out large areas of Ukraine for Russia-proper assimilation. Most ReallySmartPeople™ thought the operation was supposed to end in about 72 hours. Early Russian actions, such as the use of very little preparation fires and the air attack that was carried out on the outskirts Kiev the first day, showed resistance wasn’t expected. Dress uniforms recovered from captured Russian vehicles hint that it wasn’t just Western “analysts” who anticipated more of a show of force than a real sh**-kicker of a war.
Over the course of the six weeks, the Russian forces have terminated their efforts to capture Kiev–I know, I know, the attack on Kiev was a clever feint to distract Ukraine from the real objective; it was so brilliant that the Russians burned up an airborne battalion at Hostomel Airport just to make it look real–and withdrawn those forces into Belarus and Russia for rebuilding. The plan, according to the Russian General Staff, is to shift those forces to Donbas (read Russia’s General Staff Claims Invasion Objectives ‘Mainly Accomplished’ and Phase II of Ukraine Invasion Is Starting), that is, the heavily Russian area of Eastern Ukraine, and “liberate” it from the nazis in Kiev (read Kremlin Newspaper and a Putin Confidant Endorse Genocide as Russia’s Final Solution to the Ukraine Problem).
The Russian advances in UKR are at their greatest today. pic.twitter.com/EaCB0lkaLJ
— streiff (@streiffredstate) April 7, 2022
Sources claim Putin stated that he hopes to make some tangible progress by May 9, when Russia will celebrate the disappearing USSR’s contribution to the defeat of Nazi Germany. Get it? Germany=Nazis, Ukraine=Nazis. I just wanted to make sure you didn’t miss the subtlety of it all.
CNN:
Russia has revised its Ukraine war strategy to focus on trying to take control of the Donbas and other regions in eastern Ukraine with a target date of early May, according to several US officials familiar with the latest US intelligence assessments.
Russian ground troops have failed to retain control of the fighting areas for over a month. Russian President Vladimir Putin is under pressure to demonstrate he can show a victory, and eastern Ukraine is the place where he is most likely to be able to quickly do that, officials say. US intelligence intercepts suggest Putin is focused on May 9, Russia’s “Victory Day,” according to one of the officials.
Daily Mail
US officials said the alleged war criminal wants to coincide a victory with the parade in Red Square on May 9, which is held to mark the Nazis’ surrender in WWII. They said it could explain why the Russian despot’s forces have pulled back from the Kyiv region to concentrate on the east of Ukraine after weeks of fighting, The Times reported.
Vladimir Putin hopes to have a battlefield win in eastern Ukraine within the next month so he can celebrate it on Russia’s annual Victory Day parade in Moscow. Pictured is the Victory Day parade.
Putin may believe that a battle victory in Donbas, east Ukraine, is possible due to the pro-Russian nature of more of the Ukrainian population.
The Times
According to US officials President Putin hopes to be in the position to commemorate success in Ukraine during Victory Day, which falls on May 9, when Russian soldiers traditionally march on Red Square.
According to them, the necessity for victory on the battlefield to be held in conjunction with the Second World War holiday of the Nazi surrender explains why Russian forces have shifted to the east Donbas and along the border to Ukraine the land corridor.
It begs the question, “What are the odds that the Russian Army will make this happen?”
My assessment is “not much.”
The Russian Army is currently outnumbered in Ukraine.
Invading Ukraine began with around 200,000 Russian troops (about 1000 men per each) in 130 Battalion Tactic Groups. Additional units were added to the force. of those BTGsare considered combat ineffective because of personnel and equipment loss. This represented 75% the total number of tactical formations available in the Russian Army. Ukraine’s active-duty army was approximately 200,000. Some 150,000 troops from the Territorial Defense Forces backed the regular army. Since that time, Ukraine’s government has ordered full mobilization. About 450,000 Ukrainian military-age men had previously served in the Ukrainian Army. It is likely that many of those men have been transferred to other units or joined the Territorial Defense Force. Russian speed and surprise have been lost. They must now compete with an army of Ukrainian soldiers who are gaining experience and strength day by day to win.
There has been a lot of talk about the Russians creating a “pocket” northwest of Luhansk to destroy a significant portion of the Ukrainian Army as the signal victory for May 9 and a prelude to Putin dictating peace terms. The Russians must strike quickly to make this work. Reports yesterday claimed that the Russian offensive could begin within 36 to 48 hours. This is a difficult scenario to visualize. It will be nearly impossible for units who have been removed from combat to rebuild, and act as the main strike force, to replace equipment or integrate replacements. They must also move approximately 400 miles to their area, and then move to their contact within 48 hours. Untrained Russian reservists will be shoved into units by the Russians. (Russia Calling 100,000 Reserves to Active Duty, Moving Wagner Group from Syria in Order to Handle the Ukraine Manpower Crunch) It could take up to 2-3 weeks even for a quick rebuild of the attack forces.
There are still two weeks for the mission to be completed.
The Russians deployed around 800-1000 troops to the northern end of the area. The Russians have been fighting for nearly six weeks. Despite all of the hype about seizing Izium’s importance, the troops have advanced approximately 10 miles in three weeks. Map 16 March pic.twitter.com/1p8sWBzkTP
— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) April 7, 2022
With that in mind, do we believe that the Russian Army is working against a hard deadline of making something big happen — something that can be celebrated on par with the rape and conquest of Poland and Eastern Europe by the Red Army — by May 9?
It’s hard to know. As you see the conflict unfold, it’s hard not to imagine Putin being a man who is confident in his judgements and surround by people who will agree with him. The stereotypical “Bs hire Cs” situation that failing businesses unfailingly adopt. Putin’s refusal to call for a general mobilization seems completely out of line with his assessment of Ukraine. You can see echoes from our Vietnam War experiences where both the Army Reserve and National Guard were not called up. It is possible to imagine a scenario in which Putin thinks that his commanders only need a set timeline. This was true in WW II when the Red Army had a similar situation.
This could all be a fake-out by our Intelligence Community mid-wits. They can pretend nothing ever happened, and Putin has to alter his plans since they made them public. If the story is true there could be two interesting outcomes. One, the commander may decide that troops and logistics cannot be used in an offensive and all plans are canceled. Or things aren’t ready, and the Russians just plow ahead and create a world-class military disaster.
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