We are now six weeks into the “three hour tour” that Russian President Vladimir Putin greenlighted for February 24. This operation looked simple. It had to take down Ukraine and demolish their army. Then, it would replace its president by a Russian sockpuppet. Finally, the operation was meant to cut off large portions of Ukraine in order for Russia’s assimilation. Most ReallySmartPeople™ thought the operation was supposed to end in about 72 hours. Early Russian actions, such as the use of very little preparation fires and the air attack that was carried out on the outskirts Kiev the first day, showed resistance wasn’t expected. Dress uniforms recovered from captured Russian vehicles hint that it wasn’t just Western “analysts” who anticipated more of a show of force than a real sh**-kicker of a war.
Over the course of the six weeks, the Russian forces have terminated their efforts to capture Kiev–I know, I know, the attack on Kiev was a clever feint to distract Ukraine from the real objective; it was so brilliant that the Russians burned up an airborne battalion at Hostomel Airport just to make it look real–and withdrawn those forces into Belarus and Russia for rebuilding. The plan, according to the Russian General Staff, is to shift those forces to Donbas (read Russia’s General Staff Claims Invasion Objectives ‘Mainly Accomplished’ and Phase II of Ukraine Invasion Is Starting), that is, the heavily Russian area of Eastern Ukraine, and “liberate” it from the nazis in Kiev (read Kremlin Newspaper and a Putin Confidant Endorse Genocide as Russia’s Final Solution to the Ukraine Problem).
Comparable to the present, maximum extent of Russian advancement in UKR pic.twitter.com/EaCB0lkaLJ
— streiff (@streiffredstate) April 7, 2022
Sources claim Putin stated that he hopes to make some tangible progress by May 9, when Russia will celebrate the disappearing USSR’s contribution to the defeat of Nazi Germany. Get it? Germany=Nazis, Ukraine=Nazis. I just wanted to make sure you didn’t miss the subtlety of it all.
CNN:
Russia has revised its Ukraine war strategy to focus on trying to take control of the Donbas and other regions in eastern Ukraine with a target date of early May, according to several US officials familiar with the latest US intelligence assessments.
Russian ground troops have failed to retain control of the fighting areas for over a month. Russian President Vladimir Putin is under pressure to demonstrate he can show a victory, and eastern Ukraine is the place where he is most likely to be able to quickly do that, officials say. US intelligence intercepts suggest Putin is focused on May 9, Russia’s “Victory Day,” according to one of the officials.
Daily Mail
US officials said the alleged war criminal wants to coincide a victory with the parade in Red Square on May 9, which is held to mark the Nazis’ surrender in WWII. They said it could explain why the Russian despot’s forces have pulled back from the Kyiv region to concentrate on the east of Ukraine after weeks of fighting, The Times reported.
Vladimir Putin hopes to have a battlefield win in eastern Ukraine within the next month so he can celebrate it on Russia’s annual Victory Day parade in Moscow. Picture: Victory Day parade.
Putin believes a victory in Donbas in east Ukraine would be more possible because there are more pro-Russians living in that area.
The Times
According to US officials, President Putin would like to be able celebrate the success of eastern Ukraine’s Victory Day (May 9), when Russian troops traditionally march in Red Square.
The imperative to win the battleground coincides with the holiday commemorating the Nazi surrender in World War II, according to Russian officials. This explains why Russian forces shifted their focus to the eastern Donbas area and to the land corridor running along the southern border of Ukraine.
What are the chances of this happening by the Russian Army?
My assessment is “not much.”
The Russian Army is currently outnumbered in Ukraine.
About 200,000 Russian soldiers invaded Ukraine with 130 Battalion-Tactical Groups, each containing about 1,000 men and ancillary units. of those BTGsdue to equipment or personnel losses, are considered combat ineffective. Remember that 75% of available tactical formations within the Russian Army were used for this purpose. Ukraine was home to an army of around 200,000 active-duty soldiers. Some 150,000 troops from the Territorial Defense Forces manned the back of the regular army. Since that time, Ukraine’s government has ordered full mobilization. About 450,000 Ukrainian military-age men had previously served in the Ukrainian Army. You can assume that most of these men are either in active units to replace them, have joined Territorial Defense Force units or are creating new formations. It is now impossible to see the Russian advantage in speed and surprise. They must now compete with an army of Ukrainian soldiers who are gaining experience and strength day by day to win.
There has been a lot of talk about the Russians creating a “pocket” northwest of Luhansk to destroy a significant portion of the Ukrainian Army as the signal victory for May 9 and a prelude to Putin dictating peace terms. The Russians must strike quickly to make this work. Reports yesterday claimed that the Russian offensive could begin within 36 to 48 hours. That is hard to believe. Units that were pulled from combat will have to be rebuilt and used as the primary striking force in the attack. It is almost impossible to move 400 miles, install replacements and replace any equipment. Contact can also be made in less than 48 hours. Untrained Russian reservists will be shoved into units by the Russians. (Russia Calling 100,000 Reservists Active Duty and Moving Wagner Group To Syria to Handle the Ukraine Manpower Crunch). Even a quick rebuild of an attack force can take up to 2-3 weeks.
This leaves us with two weeks to finish the mission.
The Russians deployed around 800-1000 troops to the northern end of the area. They are now in combat almost six weeks. Despite all the talking about Izium’s importance, the Russians have advanced 10 miles in just 3 weeks. Map 16 March pic.twitter.com/1p8sWBzkTP
— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) April 7, 2022
Do we think that Russia’s Army has a deadline to meet in order for something significant to happen? Something that could be celebrated alongside the conquests of Eastern Europe and Poland by the Red Army on May 9th?
It’s hard to know. It is difficult to avoid the impression that Putin, a man who seems very confident in his judgments but lives with a lot of yes-men, can be seen as you follow this conflict. The stereotypical “Bs hire Cs” situation that failing businesses unfailingly adopt. Putin has not shown any willingness to mobilize the army, so the assessment of Ukraine seems to be completely distorted. You can see echoes from our Vietnam War experiences where both the Army Reserve and National Guard were not called up. It is possible to imagine a scenario in which Putin thinks that his commanders only need a set timeline. This was common during WW II and can be seen in this situation.
This could all be a fake-out by our Intelligence Community mid-wits. They can pretend nothing ever happened, and Putin has to alter his plans since they made them public. Two very intriguing outcomes could result if this story is true. Or, the commander declares that the troops or logistics aren’t ready and cancels everything. Or things aren’t ready, and the Russians just plow ahead and create a world-class military disaster.
About Post Author
You may also like
-
What Your Startup Should Know About Using a Local SEO Agency
-
The Importance of Professional Tree Removal
-
From Science to Storytelling: How Sara Winokur Brings Forensic Genetics to Life in Ivory Bones
-
What is an Electronic Flight Certificate? A Clear Explanation
-
Faith and Tattoos: Exploring the Intersection of Belief and Body Art