Glenn Youngkin, the Virginia governor-elect candidate for the senate, is not to be taken away. He has run a fantastic campaign and has been very good on his message, particularly after Terry McAuliffe admitted he thinks parents should not be involved in their kids’ education. Youngkin is a great example of a Republican Party politician who can be viewed as their individual and are not defined by others.
That said, this has always been McAuliffe’s race to lose. Ralph Northam took home the state with nine points. Biden was ahead by 10. McAuliffe has always been an awful candidate, however. Based on Virginia voters, McAuliffe’s floor should have been at least four to five percentage points higher than Youngkin. But that isn’t the case today.
The race to be Virginia’s next governor is a tie if you look at the polling average. RealClearPolitics has Youngkin up 1.7 points over McAuliffe, but that’s with the Fox News poll that had him up by eight. He is now up by 0.4 points if you remove that poll. The trend is very clearly in Youngkin’s favor, which in a state that has been pretty reliably blue is a bad sign for McAuliffe and for national Democrats.
This race, regardless of whether Youngkin or McAuliffe win it, has opened up the Democratic struggles going into 2022’s midterm elections.
They are very good at focusing on the national issues. Trump, Jan 6, voting rights and infrastructure. They’ve done little beyond advocating vaccines to improve the economy and COVID-19. They have completely ignored the local issues like education, and they have deemed issues like inflation, gas prices, and supply chain problems as “high-class issues.” By keeping things national and aloof from the issues affecting voters and what they’re feeling at this very moment, the Democrats have failed to keep hold of Virginia voters.
It is unlikely that these problems will disappear suddenly or in just a matter of weeks. In the best of circumstances, it may take some time for the economy to recover and the Biden administration does not intend to help. Voters will remember the things that affect their wallets and bank accounts far more than they’ll remember about the latest green initiative proposed by a climate change council set up by Congress.
McAuliffe, the candidate who is so bad that he is running for president of Ireland is no help. McAuliffe has been an active political operator for many years, but his political instincts seem to be jaded. His campaign has suffered from the one-liner about parents not having any control over how their children are educated. Trump’s race and Donald Trump have been the focus of his campaign instead of the actual pain felt at the grocery store and at the gas pump.
On the education issue, we’ve seen the poll numbers shift considerably. For a number of reasons, parents are outraged. The Democratic candidate insisted on camera that their children should be educated. Unions were determined to stop their children attending school. Critical Race Theory was used to drive people to protest their children’s treatment as oppressors or victims by school boards. The school board attempted to hide sexual assault.
Youngkin shares a lot in common with other people. Youngkin is easy to get along with and can empathize. McAuliffe is unable to connect and empathize, so voters are fleeing him. McAuliffe’s impact on an education system that they are even more afraid of is what they fear the most.
This is as relevant to Virginia as it is for those who are not from Virginia. This is the way that races will look in a year. Joe Biden is slowing down his party and they will need to go without him in 2022. This is especially true if 64% of Democrats don’t know if Biden wants to be reelected in 2024. Voters have noticed that Democratic Party governance has stopped working. The Democrats, though, don’t seem all that eager to change their ways.
This bodes well today for Youngkin, who might pull this one out. This bodes well also for Republicans in 2022, and beyond.
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