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If Polls Are Accurate, Tuesday’s Pennsylvania Senate Primary Promises to Be a Barn Burner – Opinion

By Pluralist / May 17, 2022

As Rod Stewart sang, “Tonight’s the Night!” In terms of some highly charged primary races, it definitely will be.

Idaho, Kentucky, Oregon, Pennsylvania. The States will be voting in North Carolina on Tuesday. North Carolina Rep. Madison Cawthorn who avoided a few political hits as well as an attempted to erase him from the electoral roll, sent his final plea to his constituents via Twitter:

The same people that don’t think Disney is doing any sexual grooming of children, and that drag queen story hour is perfectly normal, are outraged by videos of Cawthorn fooling around in a sexual way with his cousin.

Stop it.

We’ll see if Cawthorn’s MAGA creds will outlast the attacks from within the Republican Party and from the Left.

One of young Cawthorn’s latest bills submitted is to have abortion deaths included in CDC infant mortality deaths.

Ron, a Ron about AbortionFaucheux at Lunchtime Polis shared some great stats about the poll question.

Which comes closest to your view on abortion—abortion should always be legal, should be legal most of the time, should be made illegal except in cases of rape, incest and to save the mother’s life, or abortion should be made illegal without any exceptions?

  • Always legal: 37%
  • Legal the majority of time: 23%
  • Illegal, except in cases of rape, incest and to save the mother’s life: 32%
  • Illegal, without exceptions

Really, when you combine the “Illegal” totals, it comes to a tie with “Always Legal.” But then, you have the “Legal most of the time” at 23 percent, so the numbers weight toward support for keeping abortion.

Gallup’s January 20, 222-year-old survey

Americans became more unhappy with strict abortion laws during Trump’s presidency. This is likely due to concerns over the Supreme Court becoming increasingly conservative and a number of restrictions on abortion that were implemented at state level in those years. This discontent surged in 2022, after a drop in concerns in 2021.

A greater concern about security of reproductive rights may help the Democratic Party during the next elections, if this spurs supporters to vote or if more independents are influenced to support the Democratic candidate.

This poll is a problem. This poll is flawed because it relies on an incorrect premise. It is possible to rewrite the question if you have a better premise. Roe V. WadeIf the decision is reversed, abortion will still be legal. The responses to the questions would reflect different if they were framed in terms of strict or restrictive rather than legal and illegal. It will be up to the States to decide what they do about abortion. They can either keep their abortion laws in force or make them less restrictive, more restrictive, or remove them entirely.

Live Action, a pro-life group, has called this out as well. If people receive accurate information, and the information is included in the poll questions then the results will be different.

 But polling has consistently shown that Americans largely support such restrictions on abortion when they are educated about what they entail.

In the April 14 piece for the Post, writer Amber Phillips argues that most Americans support abortion access, based on a 2021 Washington Post-ABC News poll asking U.S. adults, “Do you think the Supreme Court should uphold Roe V. Wade or overturn it?” That poll appears to show that most Americans want Roe v. Wade to be upheld (60%), but it failed to explain It would be defined for Roe v. Wade to be upheld versus overturned.

Most Americans don’t realize that Roe v. Wade doesn’t simply “uphold a woman’s right to abortion up until about 24 weeks of pregnancy” as Phillips claims, but that, along with its sister case Doe v. Bolton, it allows abortion through all nine months of pregnancy,Please see the following: any reason — including financial reasons. Overturning it wouldn’t outlaw abortion but would allow states to make their own abortion laws. A previous analysis showed that when poll respondents are asked about Roe V. Wade, the majority don’t even understand what Roe V. Wade actually allows regarding abortion. So, ask the people if they are in favor of a court case. don’t even understand accomplishes little.

A lot of polling currently being done is affected by deceptive language and noise from the pro-abortion Left. It is all part of their scheme.

Let’s get back to primary night: The race everyone is chomping at it for is the Pennsylvania Senate. As far as I am concerned, it’s an actual horse race, where primaries usually tend to be formalities. This will be true on the Democrat side where Lt. Governor. John Fetterman is experiencing some health issues.

Fetterman will therefore be anointed simply because he survived. The Democrat bar is still very low, as usual. However, on the Republican side, you have a grassroots candidate who is giving the establishment nags a run for their money—and there’s been A LOT of money burned.

On Tuesday’s Pennsylvania Senate Republican primary, candidates and political action groups could spend more than $55 millions on radio ads and TV advertising. This race is likely to be among the most expensive in the 2022 election cycle. according to ad tracker Medium Buying.

The data shows that former Bridgewater Associates CEO Dave McCormick, and Dr. Mehmet Oz, spent over $20 million on attack ads, and other advertising, in their campaigns. Honor Pennsylvania (a super PAC that supports McCormick) has spent just more than $17million for its candidate. The pro-Oz American Leadership Action PAC, however, has made over $3 million. Federal Election Commission filings show that Oz and McCormick have raised more than $50 million together with their super PACs.

Sometimes shock and amazement may be the best way to win. Kathy Barnette might be the person who does more with less.

Kathy Barnette is a conservative commentator and has nearly tied Oz and McCormick despite all the money. All three are among the candidates vying for Pennsylvania’s open Senate seat that is being vacated by retiring Republican Sen. Pat Toomey.

This article refers to a Fox Poll showing Barnette tied with Dr. Mehmet O. Lunchtime politics surveyed all polls available and arrived at similar conclusions.

PENNSYLVANIA
REPUBLICAN PRIMARIY 
Suequehanna/ Trafalgar (R)/ Emerson = Average
Mehmet Oz: 28%/ 29%/ 32% = 29.7
Kathy Barnette: 27%/ 27%/ 27% = 27
David McCormick: 11%/ 22%/ 26% =19.7

RON’S COMMENT: The Trafalgar (R) poll was taken May 14-16, the Susquehanna poll was taken May 12-15 and the Emerson poll, which we reported yesterday, was conducted May 14-15.

  • It is a new Susquehanna poll shows McCormick collapsing, while Oz and Barnette are nearly tied. It also shows Barnette beating Oz 45-33 among voters who made up their minds “in the last few days,” which, if accurate, would give her a chance to overtake the TV doctor’s small polling lead. On the other hand, it can be argued that Barnette has a ceiling of about 27% that she won’t rise above. We’ll see this evening what’s what.

  • It Trafalgar (R) poll The poll also shows close competition between Oz and Barnette. However, McCormick does much better than the Susquehanna poll (11%) This is the Emerson Poll has McCormick still in the hunt with 26%.

The following commentary is very interesting

  • Each poll found Oz to be ahead of the rest by around two points since mid-April.

What’s the expression? If you’re standing still, you’re moving backwards.

While polls are not a reflection of accuracy but more of voter mood and enthusiasm, I don’t see Dr. Oz having a good night.

Whatever the case, I’ll have the popcorn ready.

 

 

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Pluralist

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