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Here’s the Answer on How the SCOTUS Leak Might Affect the Midterms – Opinion

By Pluralist / May 6, 2022

Are you wondering what — if any — effect the leak of the SCOTUS draft opinion has had on the prospects for the midterms?

That’s what it’s been about for the Democrats — to jack up the left with anger, so they would come out in force and prevent the Republicans from the red wave that everyone thinks will be coming. That’s why the White House wouldn’t condemn the leak or the harassment of the justices.

Was it successful?

Well, it’s a little early yet, just four days after the leak, and it was the draft and not the final opinion. But according to a new poll from CNN (yes, CNN), it doesn’t appear to have worked.

However, the share of voters who are very or extremely enthusiastic about the fall election rose six points in the last survey and is almost the same across all parties. 43% of Democrats now report being extremely or very enthusiastic. This is an increase of 7 points. Among Republicans, it’s 56%, up 9 points. And voters who say overturning Roe would make them “happy” are nearly twice as enthusiastic about voting this fall as those who say such a ruling would leave them “angry” (38% extremely enthusiastic among those happy, 20% among those angry).

The Republican enthusiasm grew even faster than the Democratic enthusiasm. And they are twice as happy. This is a story killer.

The generic ballot test shows that Republicans have a slim advantage over Democrats, with 49% to 42% of registered voters. This is a small improvement from the prior poll. On the economy — the issue most likely to be a driving factor for voters this fall — nearly half of adults (46%) in the latest poll say the Republican Party’s positions are more aligned with their own, compared with 31% for the Democratic Party. About three-quarters say that which party controls Congress makes a real difference — a figure that did not shift between the two polls — with more Republicans saying so than Democrats (88% vs. 78%).

“Narrow edge.” No, CNN, Seven points is a big jump — up by six points — in terms of the registered voters in favor of the Republicans over the Democrats.

Just a slight correction to the tweet — they say “LV” when they mean “RV” (registered voters vs. likely voters).

According to some, Republicans seem to have gained ground after the leak.

However, this situation is likely to change once the final decision, expected in June, comes out. But if I were to think about why it’s trending even more toward the Republicans, it may be that people don’t like the immediate, extreme reactions they are already seeing from Democrats and/or the leak itself, which is most likely a leftist leak.

Americans can see that while Democrats talk a lot about protecting “democracy,” they are doing all kinds of things to throw norms under the bus–even demonizing other Americans. This crazy attempt to discredit the midterms through any means possible may just fuel the Republicans more and draw in more independents.

Also bottom line, it’s not going to be abortion that decides the election, no matter how much Democrats want to make it that or think it will make a difference. The economy and inflation are more important than the Democrats, which is why they are sinking.

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Pluralist

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