Sometimes, tracking the generic ballot is a way to predict where the next election will be heading. A new poll released today shows that Republicans seem to be recovering the edge.
According to a new NBC News poll, Republicans have risen 47 to 45 over Democrats in the latest poll. The voters were asked which party they prefer to see controlling Congress. That 2-point advantage brings the GOP up 0.2 percent over Democrats in the RealClearPolitics rolling average, and it’s the first lead Republicans have taken over Democrats in a week.
The GOP’s numbers in the generic ballot started falling after August 8, the RCP charts show, indicating that the raid at Mar-a-Lago may have played some role in the fall. However, it’s worth noting that the Democrats’ numbers Also started falling around that date and that they did not top the GOP’s numbers until a week later.
Both the Republican and Democratic parties appear to be at their lowest points going into this weekend. However, the NBC News poll suggests that the GOP may be rebounding.
If Mar-a-Lago was a factor, those numbers show that Americans grew tired of the two sides and their responses to it. You’ll notice the raid itself was only in the news headlines for about a week, and then it was business as normal from there. The Democrats were able to sign their climate plan the following week, and the GOP wasted the week complaining.
However, the attention span of the American voter only goes on so long before it’s back to the issues making families the most nervous: Inflation and the economy.
And with the Biden administration touting their new “climate bill” and ignoring inflation, voters appear to be losing hope that the Democrats will actually take the issue seriously. The Democrats have been talking about electric vehicles but not addressing the real issues facing voters. They are moving back towards the GOP.
This poll is just one. While it’ll be interesting to see whether this trend continues, I believe that the overall pattern will not change. We’re also entering the time of year when votes really start getting baked in, and there isn’t much time left for the Democrats to alter course. They have their fundamental change in energy policy in place, consequences be damned, and they’re going to stick to it.
You can see how calm Joe Manchin suddenly has become.
The surrender of Roe V. WadeThe raid at Mar-a-Lago did not provide a temporary bump for Democrats. The raid at Mar-a-Lago didn’t create a permanent bump for the Democrats. The climate change bill didn’t create a permanent bump for the Democrats.
It’s not as though the Democrats are ignoring voters. The Democrats just know that voters will come back to them so they tried to pass one more major policy before Republicans would. You can clearly see that the voters have had enough of this.
I think it’s pretty likely that the GOP’s numbers grow, and faster than the Democrats’ numbers would. While time will reveal the truth, Democrats seem to have made it their mission to appear as disconnected as possible.