Do Democrats surge just in time for mid-terms to preserve their prospects? That’s the narrative currently being pushed by the election analyst bros on social media and the press. A series of recent generic ballot polls have shown Democrats gaining on the GOP, and for the first time since last November, leftwing poll aggregator 538 shows Joe Biden’s party ahead.
It’s true: Democrats are now the leaders in the election for the first-time since November. @FiveThirtyEightAverage polling for generic ballot
R+2.3: Environment the day before the Dobbs verdict
D+0.1 Environment six weeks later pic.twitter.com/m7yc8RK033— Lakshya Jain (@lxeagle17) August 5, 2022
But while election bro Twitter rejoices, I’d caution them that disappointment lurks around the corner. You can see that it’s August if you look at the calendar. Did you see who won the generic vote on August 6th 2014? It was almost two points in favor of Democrats, which is more than the current lead they have on August 6th, 2022. Was that the end result? Republicans won the election. 5.7 Points. This means that the difference in polling results between August 6th and November real results was more than 7 points. Democrats rejoice a 0.1 percent average August generic vote lead.
Take a look at 2016, and 2020. You’ll see similar discrepancies between generic ballots and actual results. Why? The reason is that generic ballot polling in the past underestimated Republican support. The summer is a better time for Democrats than the fall. The GOP held the overall lead on the general ballot until October 2014.
All that to say that it’s way too early for anyone to be suggesting that Democrats have saved themselves. Fundamentals remain terrible and incumbent parties are historically poor in the midterms. If Republicans can best the average by several points in 2014, there’s every reason to believe a Democrat lead of 0.1 percent in 2022 is meaningless.
Then there’s the Senate polling. While most of the primaries have ended and little has actually been done in campaigning, it is clear that the majority of them are now over. A series of polls by partisans has shown that Democrats believe they will sweep all the Senate tossups, even in Ohio.
Polling in Ohio has been pretty questionable in quality, but here’s one from a decent firm (Impact Research) instead of SurveyMonkey:
Tim Ryan: 48
JD Vance 45July 21-28: 800 LV. MOE +/– 3.5
Source: https://t.co/IvZeOSDwo3
— Lakshya Jain (@lxeagle17) August 6, 2022
Median, last 3 Senate polls:
PA D+11%
OH D+6%
NV D+6%
AZ D+5% (50% for D’s/51st For R’s).
GA D+3%
NH D+3-4%*
WI D+2%*
NC R+3%
MO R+6%*
FL R+6%R’s would need to be at the threshold of taking the Senate in order to do so. (e.g. “meta-margin” = 5%)
— Sam Wang (@SamWangPhD) August 5, 2022
Although the quality of the generic ballot was questionable in past elections, Senate polling is far more reliable. The aggregates for 2018 were 2.6 percent short of the Florida Senate race. They also missed Indiana’s race by 6.6 per cent. Missouri’s race was off by 5.4 percent. The polling actually underestimated Republican support in every toss up (Nevada) except for one. The same thing happened again in 2020, but worse. Each tossup race had a polling aggregate which underestimated the actual GOP support once all votes were counted.
To make the point more stark, very little valid polling has taken place to date. In Ohio, where there were no polls, or in any other race, since the primary elections just concluded, non-partisan polls have not been conducted. Sam Wang used nearly all of the aggregate polls to calculate his totals to create them. They were conducted by scam PACs such as Center Street or other hired guns to raise money. There’s absolutely nothing of value to be gained by his post.
Here’s the reality. The Democrats are getting a summer polling bump, something they’ve often seen in past cycles because most people aren’t paying attention right now. Mid-term campaigns don’t even really start until September, though. That’s when the big ad buys start, that’s when the debates begin, and that’s when rallies and other events become predominant. If Republicans are still trailing by October, maybe there’s some cause for concern, though past polling errors say not much. Anyone who takes a generic vote of 0.1 percent for Democrats as proof they will win is only being gullible.
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