If you had any doubts that Putin’s War was turning firmly in favor of the Zelensky government and against Russia’s Vladimir Putin, you can put them aside. NBC News is running a major story headlined U.S. intel helped Ukraine protect air defenses, shoot down Russian plane carrying hundreds of troops.
As Russia launched its invasion, the U.S. gave Ukrainian forces detailed intelligence about exactly when and where Russian missiles and bombs were intended to strike, prompting Ukraine to move air defenses and aircraft out of harm’s way, current and former U.S. officials told NBC News.
That near real-time intelligence-sharing also paved the way for Ukraine to shoot down a Russian transport plane carrying hundreds of troops in the early days of the war, the officials say, helping repel a Russian assault on a key airport near Kyiv.
It was part of what American officials call a massive and unprecedented intelligence-sharing operation with a non-NATO partner that they say has played a crucial role in Ukraine’s success to date against the larger and better-equipped Russian military.
The lead reporter on the story was the Intelligence Community’s and FusionGPS’s go-to guy, Ken Delanian. Delanian, who is essentially a stenographer at the IC, submitted his reports to the CIA in the past for correction and pre-publication review.
The story goes on to sing the praises of the intelligence community’s work in keeping Ukraine in the fight.
“From the get-go, we leaned pretty heavily forward in sharing both strategic and actionable intelligence with Ukraine,” a U.S. official briefed on the matter told NBC News. “It’s been impactful both at a tactical and strategic level. There are examples where you could tell a pretty clear story that this made a major difference.”
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The United States intelligence helps Ukraine move its aircraft and air defenses nearly daily. That is another reason why Russia has been unable to assert air dominance. According to officials, Ukraine may have moved planes and air defense systems in certain cases just in time.
“The Russian military has literally been cratering empty fields where air defenses were once set up,” one U.S. official said. “It has had an enormous impact on the Russian military’s ability on the ground.”
This is why I say the war is going in Ukraine’s favor, or at least that is how the IC perceives it. You can trace the origins of the invasion back to its beginnings. You find the IC predicting Russia would take Kiev and saying they were only “sharing downgraded intelligence with the Ukrainians, including about Russian military moves, in an attempt to help Ukraine on the battlefield.”
Delanian also has a similar topic, so I am assuming that they are using the same sources. This was Delanian in early March.
Officials claim the U.S. shares intelligence with Ukraine since the beginning and continue to do so. However, legislators state the difficulty of providing targeted information for the Ukrainian army to attack deadly targets is one of many problems officials face when trying to assist Ukraine to fight off a Russian invasion without getting involved in military conflicts with nuclear-armed superpowers.
“We want to support the Ukrainians in every way we possibly can, without going to war with Russia,” Smith said on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe.” “When it comes to intel-sharing and targeting, that’s a fine line.”
The U.S. is providing some intelligence to Ukraine, he said, but not “real-time targeting.”
If you recall the daily warnings issued by the IC for about a week before the invasion, they were framed as getting inside Putin’s head; letting him know that we knew what he was up to so that he wouldn’t attack. Then, the invasion occurred, and they said they knew it all. This is the quintessential “heads I win, tails you lose” situation the IC loves.
It is highly unlikely that intelligence was involved in the movement of anti-aircraft weapons. While it is possible, this seems unlikely. Many people will know your location once the radar has been turned on. The main story, however, is the one I’m not sure about.
According to this article, US intelligence helped Ukraine target two IL76 transport planes that were allegedly loaded with troops and brought them down.
The IL-76 plane is a large one, roughly equivalent to the C-17 Globemaster. It isn’t hard to imagine 120 or more troops and their equipment and vehicles inside.
Il-76 Candid strategic transportation #Aircraft . pic.twitter.com/DVuUW6TZbr
— blue-boy-786 (@blueboy7862) April 22, 2022
Russian paratroopers flying in an air assault mode, landed early at Hostomel Airport close to Kiev on the first day.
A second video of the VDV attack on Hostomel’s airport has been released@VDV_Textbooks
https://t.co/NEhodqdZQa pic.twitter.com/m3A10dpzyG— TankDiary (@TankDiary) April 17, 2022
View from the first person: Helicopter landings by Russian Airborne Troops/VDV on the Hostomel Airport. February 24, 2022.pic.twitter.com/7KjkOUiO5V
— Status-6 (@Archer83Able) March 12, 2022
The Russian Air Assault Operation on Hostomel Airport on the First Day of War. Video I count 21 Mi-8AMTSh and Ka-52 helicopters.https://t.co/ktEqT9J4TR pic.twitter.com/EPf9yF8zqm
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) March 20, 2022
It was planned that paratroopers would take down the airport immediately and then be strengthened by air-anding operations. It would have meant that a Russian battalion of airborne soldiers with armored vehicles could be found just few miles away from Kiev’s capital, just hours after war began. This is a reminder that if ever you find yourself fighting against any Russian forces or those who were trained by them, don’t forget this. When they invaded Afghanistan, they used the same tactics.
Two of these planes were reported to have been shot down early on. This information was obtained from the Ukrainian State Special Communications Agency. This is a quote from The Jerusalem Post.
According to a top American intelligence officer, the military claimed that it also shot down a Russian helicopter, SU-25, and SU-25 aircraft around midnight Saturday. It reported having also taken down an II76 Russian transport plane with paratroopers in Vasylkiv (a town 25 miles (40 km) south of Kyiv), an account which was confirmed by a senior American intelligence officer.
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Two American officials, who had direct knowledge of the situation in Ukraine on ground, reported that a second Russian Ilyushin Il-76 transport aircraft was destroyed near Bila Tserkva.
These are the reported locations where planes were downed.
It should have been an important PR stunt for Ukraine. However, it was lost. It took place within an hour’s drive from Kiev. Russian troops did not occupy the site of the accidents. And it isn’t like an Il-76 crash site is small and discreet or that there isn’t a massive number of cell phone cameras available in Ukraine.
In this context, LPR separatists downed a Ukrainian IL-76 in 2014 with a shoulder-launched MANPADS. It is evident on satellite imagery. pic.twitter.com/IFKdEzlLiR
— Josh Marcinik (@joshspatial) April 26, 2022
I contend that had two giant airplanes, full of Russian paratroopers, been shot down in Kiev’s suburbs; we would have been inundated with images of the crash site. According to my knowledge, Washington Examiner is the only US media that reported the news. Not even the sources whispering in Delanian’s ear mentioned it at the time.
The open-source intelligence community is working hard to record equipment losses during this conflict. However, if you take a look at the list, the only Russian cargo plane that was destroyed is the An-26. An-26, a turboprop twin-engine turboprop is not easily confused with the Il-76.
24-02:
Russian Air Force RF-36074 An-26 is downed/crashed above an unknown location. pic.twitter.com/8l09KPrYPP
— Kemal (@kemal_115) February 24, 2022
The location of two shoot-downs is what makes the situation even more complicated. They don’t seem to be where aircraft supporting the airport take-down at Hostomel should be. One would expect them to fly north from Kiev, and not over Kiev, if they were required to race a track while they wait.
In short, everything about this story indicates it didn’t happen. No images have been taken of any wrecks, despite reports that they took place in Kiev’s suburbs. It is difficult to find media coverage. Ukrainians don’t mention it.
Why did the IC “officials” who fed stuff to Delanian push this story out, and why Delanian and his co-authors didn’t attempt a fact check?
I am now able to see how insiders think that the conflict is working out for Ukraine. If it were going bad, we’d hear stories about the imminent fall of Kiev and how the stupid Ukrainians refused to use all the great intel they were getting. Instead, this story is how the fat-asses-wears-glasses set at Langley or wherever might as well be dispatching Spetsznaz troopers with a Louisville Slugger.
What needs to be investigated is why Delanian’s sources take credit for an event that appears to have been created by the Ukrainian propaganda machine and perpetrate yet another IC fraud on the American people. I suspect Delanian’s sources have nothing at all to do with Ukraine and are just passing along lunchroom gossip and watercooler talk so they can see themselves quoted.
There might be an explanation for this story that doesn’t involve dumbf***ery and a reporter too lazy to attempt “fact checking,” but right now, my imagination is coming up dry.