Democrats Overdose on Hopium Heading Into the Mid-Terms – Opinion

What have you heard? The Democrats are now on their way to victory in November. At least that’s the story being spread on social media and among the mainstream media. Even election analysts bros, i.e. Nate Silver, Nate Cohn, etc.) On Twitter, people are starting to think that Democrats might actually retain the House.

MSNBC released an article Monday promoting this message. “Republicans’ extremism could set Democrats up nicely for the midterms” the headline blares, offering a case study on what hopium looks like.

Democrats have fallen deeper into despair since the beginning of 2022. President Joe Biden’s approval ratings (driven by the worst inflation in 40 years), were approaching those of the late Bush administration. The party’s agenda was apparently dead in the Senate, and Republican gerrymandering had given the GOP a substantial handicap in House elections. The election geeks assumed the Democrats would lose both the House and the Senate. They also believed they could control the vital swing-state governments in November.

The party’s fortunes have changed dramatically in the past few weeks. Democratic senators pushed through the Inflation Reduction Act — a large climate and health care bill that proves the party isn’t completely incapable of governing. The inflation seems to have slowed down a bit. And Republican extremism has produced weak conservative candidates in several states and, thanks to the right-wing majority Supreme Court’s decision to strike down Roe v. Wade, toxic opposition.

Donald Trump, the former president of the United States appears to be facing serious legal problems. Last week, FBI executed a search warrant for Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home and confiscated many boxes of papers. In a purple face of outrage, all conservative groups threatened to retaliate against Attorney General Merrick Garland and the FBI, as well as any other people it might think of.

There’s so much wrong here that it’s hard to know where to begin.

The first mistake is assuming that Democrat “accomplishments” translate to votes. Currently, large majority believe that the Inflation Reduction Act (hilarious name) will make inflation worse. This bill also includes tax increases for the middle-class as well as a strengthening of the IRS, which is perhaps the most disliked bureaucracy of all. As the press tells it, subsidies for electric vehicles, mostly received by well-to-do Americans, are going to send voters rushing to support Joe Biden’s party. To put it succinctly, I don’t buy it.

Then there’s the claim of “Republican extremism” being an issue regarding candidate quality. There may be truth in the claim that Trump supported some weak candidates. But, the majority of the debate is unnecessary. The latest Georgia poll shows Herschel Walker leading, with a close race. Blake Masters, Mehmet Oz and Mehmet Oz are just beginning their campaigns. It’s only August, and there haven’t even been any debates yet.

Couple that with the recent history of senate polling being absolute garbage, and there’s plenty of reason to remain patient and optimistic if you are a Republican.

My recent analysis of past Senate polling for 2018 and 2020 revealed that pollsters rated Democrats higher in 14 out of 15 races. This was a significant finding in many instances. Until there’s proof that the issue with these surveys has been fixed, there’s every reason to believe Republicans are being understated once again. At the very least, there is no reason to be confident Democrats are now in the driver’s seat as the MSNBC writer suggests. The first mid-term elections for a president are still being held. It was historically difficult for incumbent parties. History doesn’t cease to exist because it’s not convenient.

Then there’s the House, where the “bad candidate” talking point doesn’t even begin to register. The fundamentals and districting strongly favor the GOP as well, and there’s no revidence that a probable 30-seat loss has been cut down to single digits, which is what it would take for Democrats to retain the chamber. The GOP technically still leads even if you look at generic ballots, where Democrats have narrowed the gap. For Democrats to retain the House they would require a large lead on the generic vote. That’s not something we are seeing.

Lastly, no one should be gullible enough to believe that the raid on Trump’s home actually helps Democrats. The act may actually increase Republican turnout. This is another key indicator. At the very least, it’ll be out of sight and out of mind by the time November rolls around. Three months in electoral politics is an eternity.

The Democrats have been relying too heavily on false hopes, fueled by cherry-picked data which ignores all we know about the first midterms. If it were October, perhaps one could make the case Republicans are losing momentum, but it’s August. The rumors of a Democrat return story are wildly exaggerated and premature. Nevertheless, November’s actual results will be even more funny because of the dramatic narrative shift. Nothing will ever match 2016’s election night meltdowns, but this might come close.

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