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Belarus Withdraws Ambassador as Ukraine Warns of Impending Attack From Belarus – Opinion

By Pluralist / March 21, 2022

Officials from Ukraine warned Sunday that Belarus was about to invade Ukraine, as part of Russia’s war Ukraine.

Ukrainian officials warned on Sunday that the Belarusian military was preparing to invade at the onset of the fifth week since Russian President Vladimir Putin’s forces first descended on Ukraine last month.

In a statement shared to Facebook, Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense said there were signs that suggested the armed forces of the Republic of Belarus were preparing for a “direct invasion” of Ukrainian territory.

Belarus is bordered by Ukraine to its north. It was reported that it was used as an area of staging for Russian forces.

Belarus and Russia are moving troops to the area where Belarus-Ukraine-Poland borders join. It is likely that they will strike at an axis that targets Kiev south to attempt to displace that city. A supporting attack could shake up the situation, since attacks from north remain ineffective.

 

Another ominous sign is the sudden recall of Belarus’ ambassador to Ukraine on Thursday.

Belarusian Ambassador Ihar Sokol’s sudden withdrawal from Ukraine on March 18 strikes multiple European officials and Belarusian dissidents as an ominous portent.

“Certainly, them leaving right now raises all kinds of possibilities,” a second senior European official told the Washington Examiner. “So, it is very well possible that their embassy or diplomats moving out may mean that they are close to joining the war overtly on the side of Russia, among other things.”

The rift between these two nations would be worsened if Belarus attacked Ukraine directly. Putin has characterized Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus as “a triune people” — a statement that suggests his desire to bring both countries under Moscow’s control, but also one that reflects real societal and cultural links between the countries.

Ambassador Sokol’s departure had its own drama. He was presented with a special gift as he passed through the Ukrainian border checkpoint.

The following is an approximate translation.

“F*** you, you f***ing f***.”

Sorry! I was unable to activate my New York plug in for Google Translate.

Belarus, in fact is already de facto a belligerent. Belarus has its own railroad network that transports supplies for Russia’s Army to Ukraine. Russian airbases in Belarus launch combat missions and missiles every day.

Belarus’ situation is very complicated. Belarus President and close Putin butt-boy Alexander Lukashenko seems to want to join the invasion (Belarus Prepares to Join Russia’s Unprovoked Assault on Ukraine). Early in the war, Lukashenko posed with an “invasion map,” see Oops: Belarus Leader May Have Accidentally Revealed the Next Country on Putin’s Invasion List.

While Lukashenko may be excited to help the boss man out, his people and his military aren’t big on the idea. To protest the plans to invade Ukraine, his defense minister had resigned in March. Pro-Ukraine, anti-war demonstrations were held in Minsk as well as other Belarusian cities. Lukashenko is more concerned that the conflict in Ukraine may signal the start of resistance. Some Belarussians are attacking rail lines that carry Russian supplies and troops (Belarus Rail Lines carrying Trains with Supplies for the Russian Army Being Hit by Sabotage Attacks). One battalion-sized unit of Belarussians crossed the border in order to combat Russia.

Plus, Belarus’ army is 20,000 men and not trained to the exacting standards of the Russian Army. The Ukrainian Territorial Defense Forces would crush it and make a very small impact on the conflict.

Belarus’s participation in the war would have a real impact on the conflict, which would likely be limited to Russia and Ukraine.

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Pluralist

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