Not many nations would want to be unfavorably compared to Mussolini’s Italy in World War II, but Belarus dictator Alexander Lukashenko has set his sights on being the moral equivalent of Il Duce. If you aren’t familiar with Lukashenko, his title is technically “president,” since he was “elected” in 1994 in a “one man, one vote, one time” election that Putin had in mind for Ukraine when he installed his stooge, Viktor Yanukovych.
Even though preliminary peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine have been held in Belarus, Lukashenko seems to be about to unleash what Belarus calls an armoured force on its neighbor.
According to a senior U.S. intelligence officer, Belarus will send troops to Ukraine Monday in support of Russian forces who invaded Ukraine last Wednesday.
Belarus has been providing support for Russia’s war effort, but so far has not taken a direct part in the conflict.
The American official has direct knowledge of current U.S. intelligence assessments and says the decision by Belarus’ leader on whether to bring Belarus further into the war depends on talks between Russia and Ukraine happening in the coming days. To discuss sensitive information, the official spoke anonymously.
It probably indicates a couple of things. As I’ve pointed out, the Russian forces available for this operation (something over 170,000) do not support an operation along four axes of advance. This means that you have about 40,000 soldiers allocated to each axis, and if you subtract support personnel it leaves about 4,000 infantry troopers to complete the task. In particular, the number of troops outside Kiev is nowhere near sufficient to attack that city which probably explains why they’ve halted about 20 miles away. An attack by Belarus would be much easier to capture Kiev.
Putin is dragging his accomplice into the fight for a deeper reason, I believe. There is no doubt that the Russians have suffered many casualties. Although there aren’t any numbers that I can confidently quote, it is safe to assume that Russians are currently in the 45,000-5000 range. This is due to the intense fighting. That number can’t be hidden from the Russian people indefinitely. A loss of one to two hundred dollars per day from accidents, direct combat, drone attack, and partisan operations is inevitable as the war drags on. Putin can transfer some of his losses to a client state by bringing in troops from Belarus.
My post “Why Did the Russian Media Quickly Remove an Essay on Ukraine Explain Vladimir Putin’s Desire to Win from the Invasion of Ukraine” will explain. You know that there are rumors about Putin’s plans to merge Ukraine and Belarus. It would be an initial step to place Belarus forces under Russian control. More signs are there.
⚡️Russia attacked Zhytomyr Airport with the Iskander missile system.
These air strikes were carried out from Belarus using Russian ballistic missile launchers.
Earlier, Belarus said it wouldn’t allow air strikes from its territory amid Ukraine’s upcoming peace talks with Russia.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) February 28, 2022
BREAKING NEWS: Belarus passes a constitutional referendum, revoking their non-nuclear status. This opens the door for Russian nuclear weapons to be developed in Belarus
— BNO News (@BNONews) February 27, 2022
On June 10, 1940, as France’s defense was crumbling in the face of the German Blitzkrieg, Benito Mussolini declared war on France and launched an attack into the Alpine region of France. Roosevelt immortalized Mussolini’s duplicity with the phrase, “On this tenth day of June, nineteen hundred and forty, the hand that held the dagger has struck it into the back of its neighbor.”
It is my hope that Lukashenko will take the time to think about his future actions as Russia sanctions have been placed on Russia. It is also important that Lukashenko remembers where Mussolini went.
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