As Flop Sweat Sets in, House Democrats Heading for the Exits Includes Those in Very Safe Seats – Opinion

This year, the Democrats face an unprecedented number of retirements. Today, 23 Democratic members of Congress have decided not to run for reelection.

To get the best look at this, we need to dig beneath the surface layer of “not running” and take a look at why that might be.

Retirements and I’m Outta Here

Fiveteen Democrats announced that they will either quit or retire. This is the list. You can see the number that follows their names. It indicates the partisan split in the area they will be contesting for the 2022 election.

Ann Kirkpatrick–AZ/R+7

Lucille Roybal-Allard–CA/D+4 Redistricting put her into the same district as Alan Lowenthal and changed her D+57 seat to D+4.

Alan Lowenthal–CA/D+4 Redistricting put him into the same district as Lucille Roybal-Allard and changed his D+25 seat to D+4.

Jackie Speier–CA/D+54

Stephanie Murphy–FL/D+5 She was going to run for Senate against Marco Rubio, but the state Democratic party cleared the deck for Val Demings to run.

Cheri Bustos–IL/D+4

John Yarmuth–KY/D+20

Albo Sires–NJ/D+46

G. K. Butterfield–NC/D+1

David Price–NC/D+42

Peter DeFazio–OR/D+9

Michael Doyle–PA/D+27

Filemon Vela–TX/D+17

Ron Kind–WI/R+9

Run for Senate

Val Demings–FL/D+21

Tim Ryan–OH/District eliminated

Conor Lamb–PA/R+10

Peter Welch–VT/D+28

Run for Governor

Charlie Crist–FL/R+1

Tom Suozzi–NY/D+4

You can run for other offices

Karen Bass–CA/D+72 Running for mayor of Los Angeles.

Anthony Brown–MD/D+62 Running for State Attorney General

Two main types of members can be seen in this group. The first is members that are likely to face a tough election in a GOP year. These members are either bailing out of the system or are seeking another position. Conor Lamb saw his D+2 seat turn into R+10. I don’t know his chances of winning Pennsylvania’s senate seat, but they are better than the odds of him being reelected. Arizona’s Ann Kirkpatrick was elected from a district that was D+2; her new district is R+7.

Second, Democrats with very secure seats. Some of these people are expected. DeFazio, who is approximately 75 years of age and has already served 18 terms. DeFazio ought to retire. But the rest of the group shows that they have been in the minority and don’t want to do that again. That’s why Val Demings is giving up a House seat that she could own for the rest of her life to get her ass handed to her next year. It is possible that she could win. She could win, but losing is better than being an unrepresentative in the House of Representatives.

The off-year elections of the party holding the White House are not easy. When the president’s approval rating is in the low 40s, something that Joey SoftServe will be aspiring to achieve by next summer, losses of 40-60 seats are the rule rather than the exception. When you combine skyrocketing gasoline prices, inflation pushing into double digits, shortages of food and staple items, a brutal redistricting process, an electorate that believes everything is going in the wrong direction, and a governing philosophy that is much more fixated on imposing Critical Race Theory than the welfare of Americans with an obviously stupid and incompetent president, it doesn’t take a genius to see how this movie is going to end.

The fact that candidates have already started blaming the DNC campaign apparatus for losses that haven’t yet occurred is a sure sign of flop sweat setting in (Report: Dems Panicking That Campaign Arm Is Hurting Rather Than Helping Their Chances).

They are the smart ones. The remaining dumb and despondent are the ones who remain.