Russia Pledges to Maybe Not Starve Millions to Death if Sanctions Are Lifted – Opinion

Economic dislocation is one of the effects of war. Whatever Vladimir Putin may call the conflict in Ukraine, it’s a war that is destabilizing markets all over the globe. While the disruption to Russian oil and gas supply to Europe has attracted most attention, a bigger problem is emerging than the cold Euros. Ukraine is one of the world’s leading exporters of wheat and sunflower oil. Because of Putin’s War, Ukrainian products can’t pass through the Black Sea to get to market.

Fears of a global food crisis are swelling as Russian attacks on Ukraine’s ability to produce and export grain have choked off one of the world’s breadbaskets, fueling charges that President Vladimir V. Putin is using food as a powerful new weapon in his three-month-old war.

World leaders called on Tuesday for international action to deliver 20 million tons of grain now trapped in Ukraine, predicting that the alternative could be hunger in some countries and political unrest in others, in what could be the gravest global repercussion yet of Russia’s assault on its neighbor. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, where worries about the war’s consequences have eclipsed almost every other issue, speakers reached for apocalyptic language to describe the threat.

Russia closed off areas in the Black Sea for all traffic, regardless of what ships they are transporting.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken echoed the grim assessment last week in remarks at the United Nations, calling Russia’s blockade “a deliberate effort” to destabilize the world’s food supply.

Since Russia issued a warning to mariners in February that significant areas of the Black Sea were closed to commercial traffic, “the Russian military has repeatedly blocked safe passage to and from Ukraine by closing the Kerch Strait, tightening its control over the Sea of Azov, stationing warships off Ukrainian ports. And Russia has struck Ukrainian ports multiple times,” Blinken said.

“The food supply for millions of Ukrainians — and millions more around the world — has quite literally been held hostage by the Russian military,” he said.

This story has a few parts. Russia is stealing grain from Ukraine’s occupied regions and selling it on a global market. The Russians also demolish infrastructure such as silos, grain elevators, and transport Ukrainian farm machinery to Russia.

Putin, never one to overlook a great crisis, is pushing for sanctions to be lifted on Russia by the west in return to its end of blocking Ukrainian ports.

The very premise of Putin’s proposal is ludicrous and dishonest. France, Germany and Italy could all agree to this because of these features. In removing the blockade, Russia doesn’t give any assurances about putting ships in Odessa or the grain elevators and rail systems that supply them off-limits. My view is that a) it is very unlikely that Putin gives a rat’s ass about hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions, of non-Russians starving to death; in fact, he probably sees this as a feature rather than a bug, and b) equally unlikely that Putin will allow Ukraine to earn money from exports. He removes the Odesa blockade, pursues the infrastructure, and stops Ukraine earning money from exports of wheat and oil by creating a famine.

Is this possible? If you agree not to kill a few millions people, can you make a deal with the United States to get rid of any sanctions that were imposed on you for starting a war. Even when there is no guarantee those people still won’t starve if sanctions are removed? Never lose sight of the fact that Putin is a strategic genius in the same way that “in the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king.” He’s dealing with self-serving idiots incapable of resolve, so don’t count out the EU shouting “Leeeeeroy Jenkins,” and coming to Putin’s rescue.

 

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