Red Oregon? Sabato’s Crystal Ball Moves Governor’s Race to Toss-Up – Opinion

The liberal governor could be replaced with a Republican. Kate Brown (D-OR), as University of Virginia Center for Politics Sabato’s Crystal Ball has moved the race from “Lean Democratic” to “Toss-Up.”

Tina Kotek, former Democratic State House Speaker, is challenging Christine Drazan (former Republican State House Minority Leader), Fox News reported. Drazan announced Wednesday a $700 ad buy. There is also a strong independent candidate, former Democratic state Sen. Betsy Johnson, who the University of Virginia Center for Politics describes as “more conservative” than many of her former party members. Drazan can pull off this win in this race with three candidates that could split Democrats.

Source: The Center for Politics

The outgoing governor. Kate Brown (D), the outgoing governor, is highly unpopular and may spark some hope for reform in Beaver State. Johnson, an independent candidate, will still win the race. Kotek, Drazan and other candidates will work to keep their voters away from Johnson’s banner. There’s just enough uncertainty here that we’re looking at the race as a Toss-up now.

Drazan can pull off a Glenn Youngkin win and flip this office because this year’s political climate favors Republicans. The position has been held by a Democrat since 1987. This could bring about a massive shakeup in the state.

In the 2020 election in Oregon, President Joe Biden won 56% of the vote. It’s worth noting that although the counties that have population hubs like Portland, Salem, and Eugene, are heavily Democratic, the western and southern parts of the state largely backed Trump in 2020, according to Politico.

“Oregonians are ready for a new direction and we are ready to turn the page on one-party rule,” Drazan tweeted in response to the race shift announcement.

It will be fascinating to see how the potential conservative governorship contrasts with Mayor Ted Wheeler, who is well-known for his left-wing activism. At the state level, Democrats have 18 senators with 37 members and Republicans only 11 with 23 representatives. The Democrats may find Drazan a critical stopping point to left-leaning legislation and they might be forced to compromise more frequently than they wish.

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