This week looks bleak for Ukrainians, as Vladimir Putin clears out his home and begins to plan for Ukraine’s next conquest. Meanwhile, NATO and the United States struggle to provide Volodymyr Zilenskyy with the assistance he needs.
Kremlin-watchers undoubtedly love the intrigue that British press reports have revealed about the alleged house arrest by the FSB of foreign intelligence officers Sergey Beseda (and his deputy Anatoly Boryukh). Vladimir Putin seems unhappy with the FSB’s underestimation of the Ukrainian resistance’s capabilities and tenacity, as well as its prediction that Ukrainians will welcome the Russian military openly. Other reports from the Times of Israel and the India Times carry reports that Ukrainian Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Oleksiy Danilov is saying Putin has fired eight generals for failing to achieve their “special military operation” objectives, the Russian euphemism for its invasion of Ukraine.
The reality is that things may not be as simple as it seems when you look at Russia’s happenings. The Kremlin is a place where intrigue can be found. The ability to read the tea leaves and rumors can be used by entire wings of Western intelligence agencies. More alarming is the list of possible consequences. Moscow signals that (a) it considers Ukraine’s government and military to be a problem and that (b) it doesn’t consider the Ukrainian people to be friendly and (c) that they are determined to modify the military tactics necessary to conquer Ukraine. And Mr. Putin wants it done – or else.
The next crop of Russian generals have begun to work on bringing down the Zelenskyy machine’s ability to continue to resist. The process began with the declaration of Ukraine’s military supply pipeline as legitimate targets. My previous analysis piece asked me how far back that supply chain could be. This question was answered when Russia attacked the International Center for Peacekeeping and Security in Lviv, Ukraine. It is located near the Polish border. This is the message for the West: All supply lines that could be used to help Zelenskyy (including those that may be operated by NATO members) are now under attack.
Pentagon press spokesman John Kirby made a special effort to point out that the US was not present at the international base at the time of the attack in his Sunday appearance on ABC’s This Week with George Stephanopoulos,
“KIRBY: There were no American service members, no Americans at all working at that training facility. As you all know, we had already left several weeks prior.
ABC: And what can you tell us about the strike? The deputy mayor was there. What can you do to improve that?
KIRBY : I believe he knows more than us right now. It was obvious that the strikes occurred overnight. We do know that there was some damage to the training facility and we’re still assessing and talking to Ukrainians about what else they’ve seen here. This is now the third military base or airfield the Russians have attacked in Western Ukraine within the past few days. So, clearly, at least from an air strike perspective, they’re broadening their target sets.”
Despite this threat, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan stated that the US will continue to supply Ukraine with weapons on his appearance on CBS’ Face the Nation,
“We believe in our capacity to continue to flow substantial amounts of military assistance, weapons, and supplies to the front in Ukraine. This has been a success so far. We believe we have the system that allows us to continue doing this, regardless of Russian threats. We believe these weapons make a big difference in Ukraine’s defense. Of course, we’re merely helping provide the tools. The courage and the bravery and the frontline skill of these fighters is ultimately what’s making the difference and the courage, bravery and skill of ordinary Ukrainian citizens, standing up and defending their towns and cities is what’s making the difference, and we will continue to support them in their effort to ensure that Ukraine is a strategic failure for Vladimir Putin.”
It is unknown how far this supply resolution will go. Sullivan reiterated that the United States is reluctant to intensify its involvement.
“What President Biden has made clear from the beginning is that we will not have U.S. military forces operating in Ukraine, and there are none operating there now. But we will defend every inch of NATO territory, even as we seek to provide military assistance to the Ukrainian fighters who are bravely defending their homes and bravely defending their cities.”
This “send parts and hope for the best” strategy is wearing thin on the Ukrainians. Demytro Kubela (Ukraine Minister of Foreign Affairs) spoke out on CBS Face The Nation to discuss the ongoing story of Polish Mig-29s being transferred to Ukraine.
MARGARET BreNNAN: Although President Biden authorized another 200 million weapons, those were small arms anti-aircraft. Congress has promised to send more money your direction. How specific weapons types do you require? What are the most advanced system?
KULEBA says the greatest demand in aircraft is for fighting-fighting and attack planes. This is because Russia’s air force power and Ukraine’s are not comparable. And yes, it’s true that we shoot them down, but they also- they also shoot us down. We cannot stop two things happening if the skies are out of our control. Russian bombers can destroy cities, kill civilians and we simply cannot prevent them from happening. Russian column heading for our large cities by roads cannot be destroyed. These two goals can only be achieved if we have more aircraft. This is the most important issue. We- frankly speaking, we don’t understand all the explanations that we are given, why we should not be- why we should not be given those planes and we will continue putting pressure on our- and from all corners and requesting this assistance from the United States and other partners.
MARGARET BRENAN Then President Biden spiked it a few days later. Have you ever had the impression that fighter jets will be given to you by any country?
KULEBA: Well, it’s- frankly everything that happens over the fighting jets in the last week is kind of a diplomatic mystery. While everyone wants to make it happen, we don’t have the planes. I think of other games like ping pong where one side throws the ball and the other takes it back. This kind of pingpong diplomacy is not possible. To save our citizens’ lives and stop Rus-to stop Russian dominance in the skies, we need planes. As Ukrainian foreign minister, I request that we find common ground in this matter and give Ukraine the resources it requires to defend itself.
MARGARET BRENNAN
KULEBA: I – to my view, this logic is flawed because the drones are not escalatory and planes are escalatory. Is this the reason? It is not an escalatory strategy, but planes and anti-tank weapons. To make everyone understand Russia’s escalating situation, let us first ask: What other actions can Russia take? As I said in the beginning they used weapons that were not allowed under international conventions. We fear another, another escalation. Our defense is what we must do. And then the second point that I’m hearing is that planes are offensive weapons, and therefore they can not be supplied because the partner is only supplying defensive weapons to Ukraine. I’m sorry, but all weapons given to us are defensive by definition, because they are being used to defend this country. And I don’t understand what else has to happen, what kind of atrocity has to be committed for foreigners to put all this flawed arguments aside and finally provide us with what we need.
As for me, my military analyst roots have taken note that if the Russians are shifting their campaign strategy to one of choking off Ukraine’s ability to fight its ground war, more sophisticated weaponry to interdict these attacks and to also interdict Russia’s supply lines will be needed by the Ukrainians to keep the warfare stalemate in balance. The Russians are now using deeper reaching missiles with tight center of error probability (CEP) accuracy like the ones used to attack the ICPS base in Lviv – new generals, new techniques. That’s going to take more sophisticated air defenses to keep at bay, on the order of US Patriots or Israeli Iron Domes. Their weak link is the Russian system’s weak link. But that will change as long as Ukraine has the resources to wage its own war. Mr. Putin’s revised Kremlin team is not waiting around for the US and NATO to ponder our belly buttons.
Cruelty has been stepped up
The Russian “broadening of target sets” isn’t limited to military supplies. Reports on 11 show that civilians were shelled and shot more after the Russian military leadership changed its guard.ThMonth of March. A common Russian story, as noted by freelance reporter Hollie McKay, who described the attack on a children’s hospital in Mariupol as a case of the Russians falsely claiming that military units were operating on the grounds of the civilian center, thus making it a legitimate military target. It’s a flimsy excuse that can be used to paint propaganda for domestic consumption favoring the Russian image as heroic. It’s a flimsy excuse to justify pounding every neighborhood, church, hospital, train station, and building in Ukraine into rubble. It’s not heroic. It’s deliberate and congruent with the ominous portents of the Kremlin intrigue described at the beginning of this piece.
Insidious shooting was the responsibility of Brent Renaud (American journalist), who paid with his life in Kyiv’s suburb Irpin. This area RedState has previously covered in our reporting. Renaud is among many civilians who are caught up in the midst of an intense ground conflict. The sad fact is that this is typical of the dangers Ukraine’s population faces as the Russian military resorts to siege terrorism to wear down the will of Ukraine to persevere. The Russians see the Ukrainian population as a military target, if we go back to Kremlin tea leaves.
This was Minister Kubela’s interview.
“What we’ve been seeing in recent three weeks is a series of deliberately committed war crimes, crimes against humanity. And when they bomb hospitals, maternity houses, schools, when they kill civilians passing by trying to be evacuated from the war zone, that, of course, indicates that they are trying to break us down and to destroy us.”
There is no clear solution, but Pope Francis made a somber observation on Sunday, 13 March.
“The only thing to do is stop this unacceptable armed aggression before it reduces cities into cemeteries.”
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