Back in May, Politico published a leaked draft of Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito’s decision in Dobbs or. Whole Women’s HealthPolitico Attempts to Pre-Game the Supreme Court by publishing a draft opinion that overturns Roe. The pseudo-legal basis that allowed the horrible practice of abortion was destroyed by this decision when it was finally released in June.
Pro-aborts, both the seemingly normal and definitely abnormal, turned out across the country and on the sidewalk in front of Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s home to protest the end of their ability to murder babies.
While purple-haired screamers raged, more shrewd observers of American politics predicted that this was precisely what the Democrat Party required to reverse the horrific mismanagement of the country at Joe Biden. If Americans were torqued about “supply chain” breakdowns, no baby formula (Joe Biden Invokes Defense Production Act to Try to Fix the Baby Formula Shortage His Henchmen Created), gas increasing by $3/gallon in 18 months, and businesses crushed by COVID lockdowns, by gosh, the very thing to take their mind off that string of catastrophes was the right to kill infants. READ: CNN Polling Expert Puts the ‘Ow’ in ‘Ouch’ for Democrats by Explaining Just How Bad It Is.
The Washington Post
Supporters of abortion rights and their Democratic allies predicted that the thunderclap heard Monday night with Politico’s publication of a leaked draft opinion by Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr. would reverberate through to the fall campaign and possibly beyond.
According to them, this would change an election which so far appears to have been a referendum on President Biden, his party and turn it into a choice of Democratic or Republican governance. It could also narrow the Republican enthusiasm gap and help keep down anticipated GOP gains.
“The right wants to take this to a place — and I think this will be a problem for the right — to a very dark place that I don’t think Americans are prepared for,” said Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg. “Gender politics has been relatively muted for some time. This brings it to the fore and it will be dramatically different than what we’ve seen for a long time.”
Bloomberg:
A new poll has found that abortion-rights advocates are more motivated than their opponents by the possibility of Roe v. Wade being overturned by the Supreme Court. It also suggests how a draft opinion might shape the midterm elections.
USA Today
At a time when President Joe Biden’s approval rating has been underwater for months, the leaked opinion and possible overturning of Roe v. Wade by the Supreme Court could energize Democratic voters in a way the president has so far been unable to do and give Democrats a better shot at maintaining control of Congress, some experts say. Interviews with pro-abortion activists indicate that their supporters will be motivated, as well.
“I think the wholesale reversal of Roe is a wild card,” said David Axelrod, a top Democratic consultant and former senior adviser and chief strategist for President Barack Obama. “Democrats are facing ferocious headwinds this fall. But if the court follows through on this, the backlash could provide some counterweight – particularly if it brings more pro-choice women and younger voters to the polls.”
One month later, DobbsDecision, and we now have a better understanding of its effects on the 2022 election. Starting at Washington PostArticle headline Poll finds that Americans are more likely to vote than they were at Roe’s end.
Nearly two-thirds of Americans say the end of Roe v. Wade represents a “major loss of rights” for women, a Washington Post-Schar School poll finds, but those who support abortion access are less certain they will vote this fall — a sign of the challenges facing Democrats who hope the issue will motivate their base in the midterms.
A lot of the stuff in the poll doesn’t make sense, but as it seems to have been constructed to create a “Democrat voting intensity increases after Dobbs” storyline, it is worth reading.
But the poll also provides evidence of an enthusiasm problem for Democrats: Those who reject the idea that the court’s ruling is a loss for women are 18 percentage points more likely to express certainty they will vote in the midterms — 70 percent compared with 52 percent of those who do see such a loss, according to the Post-Schar School poll conducted July 22 to 24.
Women, particularly younger ones, and Democrats are especially uncertain if they will vote. The majority of women younger than 40 believe they will vote, even though they worry about abortion access rollbacks.
“Is the discontent with Democratic Party leadership and policies generally so deep that those most affected by the court decision … still plan to sit out this election?” said Mark Rozell, dean of the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University, who worked on the poll. “I struggle to wrap my head around this disconnect.”
In the face of inflation at 9% and gas costs approaching $5/gal, “abortion intensity” may not be able to work. pic.twitter.com/nKco2E2COG
— streiff (@streiffredstate) July 29, 2022
There are many possibilities between now and November. It is clear that the GOP leadership team includes a group of cretins, grotters, and others who are capable of turning a dream into horror. It is clear that the pro-life message is still relevant. The 50-year-old opponents of abortion are still as motivated to end this medically unnecessary procedure today as ever. Perhaps more so, given our real progress. Even more telling is that most people who claim they have been injured are not actually hurt. Dobbs aren’t angry; they are defeated and demoralized. We can’t afford to lapse into triumphalism, there is a lot of hard work to do to rescue this country from Biden and his cronies, but we needn’t be fearful of losing votes because the Supreme Court did the right thing.
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