Last Chance to Prevent Ukraine Becoming Another Afghanistan – Opinion

Ukraine’s alarm bell was raised. Friday, February 11, 2008^ThThe United States advised citizens that they should leave Ukraine as soon as possible because it was expecting a Russian invasion on Tuesday February 15.

Here, the working theory is that once Russia has a sufficiently large force they can win, they will attack because it is their blind desire to rule. That is the “conventional” wisdom of the most hawkish contingent of US Washington Establishment analysts.

However, is this assumption firm? Looking back in history, the USSR was at a point where it could build enough forces to beat NATO. The year was 1975. After losing Vietnam War, the US was in a funk. Russian anti-aircraft missiles had shown themselves to be capable of decimating combat aircraft state of art when used by qualified technicians during the 1973 Yom Kippur war. The Table of Equipment (that’s a technical term in warfare analysis) of the force structure facing off across the Fulda Gap. Each arsenal analytics model declared NATO dead.

However, the USSR never attacked. That was something that astonished the 80s hawks. This was the fact that I first learned when I worked on nuclear deterrence. Ronald Reagan did not underestimate the Russians deep desire to rest at night, knowing that their borders were safe. This is what makes all of their precious things so valuable to them.

America is likely to suffer from this war-mongering. The false bravado in providing daily anti-tank missiles to the Ukrainian army is laughable. All military analysts understand that, while Russia’s army might be wounded it will triumph on the battlefield. The west will not send reinforcements to Ukraine.

According to me, the battles won’t take place. The fix may already be in place. The Ukrainian leadership, just like in Afghanistan will likely disappear and be expelled from the country. It is all quiet. In the coming seven- to ten days, it will be all about making money from corruption. Officials profiting from corruption will extract wealth and make plans to flee before they give the green light to Vladimir Putin.

Let’s be clear here. Joe Biden was the one who allowed all this in Afghanistan during his August 2021 departure. The corrupt government officials made a number of deals with Taliban to end the conflict, leaving ordinary Afghan citizens to face their destiny. Afghanistan currently faces a humanitarian crisis that leaves it with little to no resources.

The Washington Establishment brain trust’s enthusiasm and US media echoing the White House narrative is not the truth. Biden hasn’t been able build consensus with US allies in order to defend Ukraine. The press is a docile flock living in fear, if they don’t follow the program, their White House press passes will be confiscated. The fourth estate is not up for debate. And it’s leaving the American people blind and set up to be abandoned to our fate as well.

All the other nations see through this US con. Nobody wants troops from their countries to go into Ukraine to trade artillery with Russians. It’s campaign fluff. Total paper tiger nonsense. No wonder countries like Germany aren’t in the mood to play along.

All are concerned that this escalation might get out of control.  This is the US’s risk of turning the Cold War situation into a kinetic conflict on European soil. Here all the potential dangers that could result in a return to war for the Old World are magnified. What? Ukraine? Really? It’s not worth risking the entire fabric of civilized Europe catching fire.

Biden, however, has repeatedly declined to directly engage Putin in the exploration of the obvious solution to this crisis, which is for Russia, NATO and the US to agree to a ten to fifteen-year moratorium over the fate Ukraine. The west has agreed not to allow Ukraine to join NATO. Russia has agreed not to intrude or interfere with Ukraine’s internal affairs. This agreement would require that Russia cease supporting the separatist movement of Donbas. Both Russia and West would be able to ask that the Ukrainian government start a ten-year long fight against corruption.  The European Union and Russia could continue to improve their direct economic relations, thus enhancing Eurasia’s stability.

The inconvenient truth that is that it would also mean that the records of corruption in Ukraine will remain intact and auditable as a “diplomatic solution” plays out; something unattractive to those who would rather have such records destroyed in shelled out buildings rather than come to light to hold perpetrators accountable. Now there’s something the big news bureaus should be assigning their best investigative and forensic reporters to right now! One should watch out for the signs that people are getting ready and willing to hack into their computers. You should look for evidence to prove it before it vanishes.

One should ask why the US says it wants to negotiate a solution but in reality, its diplomatic rhetoric suggests that the US is preventing a negotiated resolution with acceptable terms for all involved from taking place.

It seems that the West is telling Americans that Ukraine must be abandoned. The West will not defend Ukraine as it falls, and the West will continue to tell Americans that they should protest the West’s hand-over of power through diplomatic channels.

The Biden team has promised sanctions against Russia as part of their optics. But anyone with any understanding of how “rational economic wealth maximizing behavior” works already realizes that a US coerced sanctions regime will not hold up over time. The European Union’s self-interest is to engage in increasing business relationships with the easternmost kingdom of Europe. The US will lose its influence eventually. This could lead to the collapse of NATO as a whole.

This is in a way a historical point that is, when viewed objectively, part of World War II demobilization. That is why analysts and repeaters of media have made a comparison between the current situation with the threats the world faced in 1939, just before World War II began.  Either the world finds a lasting peace, or it will fall apart in a series of failures that lead to its ultimate destruction.

Bluntly, the question for the Europeans and Russians in the next five days boils down to, “Do we let Joe Biden’s America get away with this?”  Or do they collectively wake up this weekend, come together, bypass the United States, and send a telegram to Washington on Monday that says, “Yankee Go Home”.

The Europeans, Russians, and others could declare that the US has rescheduled the decision on Ukraine’s fate for a decade without any American involvement. You can tell the United States that we are committed to helping to expose and eliminate corruption in Ukraine. This includes investigating money laundering operations that may have gotten back to the United States.

The world would be able to buy time if the Euro/Russo diplomats resisted the US’s rush to war. This would require the US to reassess its foreign policy for the next decade. The US would be forced to take responsibility for Afghanistan. It would prevent the errors from Afghanistan being copied at the border influence between Eastern Europe and Western Europe in Ukraine.

Are the selfish interests of the Old World causing the New World’s self-interests to be ignored?

If the Whitehouse is correct, this question must be answered by Tuesday.