Soon-to-be former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) is causing no small level of speculation about her political future after her devastating loss in Tuesday’s primary election. During her concession speech, she said she would be dedicating herself to opposing the Orange Man What Is Bad™ and preventing him from becoming president again in 2024.
Cheney even suggested that she may be considering entering the race for next president-elect. That was more funny than the Dave Chappelle show. But some have speculated that while Cheney has as much of a chance of winning in 2024 as former media activist Brian Stelter has of winning “People Magazine’s”Sexiest Man Alive Award. She can still cause some harm to President Donald Trump and other GOP candidates.
Indeed, I’m already seeing people make comparisons to Ross Perot on social media. Anti-Trumpers dream of Cheney’s ability to destroy a GOP presidential election by running.
Is she going to pull off a Perot? After her defeat in the Wyoming GOP primary, Trump foe Liz Cheney contemplates 2024. Some believe she may run independently like Dallas’ H. Ross Perot, who did it in 1992. #LizCheney #DonaldTrump #Cheney #Trump #Wyoming #Perot https://t.co/atPz0jykFr
— John Gravois (@Grav1) August 17, 2022
“There is a Ross Perot moment brewing, and if it comes to fruition, Donald Trump will lose the 2024 presidential election,” he said in statement. “Should Trump choose to run, he will be running uphill against the Democratic nominee and an independent torpedo named Liz Cheney.” https://t.co/sYjECnxYoq
— John McCormick (@McCormickJohn) August 17, 2022
Although it seems unlikely that Cheney would derail the Republican presidential bid, there are ways this could be possible.
Cheney retains the support of many establishment neocons. This would be a huge advantage if Cheney decided to run independently or as a third party. Although it is unlikely that she will actually attempt to defeat Trump in the primaries but their support might allow her to be a spoiler and ensure the Democratic candidate wins the elections.
Cheney’s success in derailing Trump and other GOP candidates is not possible if he has anti-Trump/MAGA right-leaning conservatives. It also involves disaffected Democrats. Because the left has so shamelessly lost the White House power and Congress, it might motivate others in their base to give Cheney a chance. This combined with the NeverTrumpers would make it a weak voting bloc but could give Democrats an edge.
However, as I mentioned earlier, it is not a realistic possibility.
Although it is unlikely that conservative Democratic voters are willing to vote for a neocon warmonger such as Cheney, this does not appear to be the case. It seems more probable that these folks would say “a pox on both your houses” and sit out the 2024 election even if Trump is the Republican nominee. Orange Man Bad can only get so far following four years under the terrible Biden administration.
It is unlikely that this scenario will happen, but I doubt it. It is however the only way that I see Cheney being a spoiler in 2024. It is unlikely that she will be able garner enough support from right-leaning voters in order to have an impact. She would need to draw from Democrats or Independents who are not likely to like her. The fact of the matter is nobody likes Liz Cheney at the moment – and this is not going to change anytime soon, if ever.
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