You asked me what I told you. You were told not to pronounce August’s campaign “over”. Sure enough, the latest polling shows that Mehmet Oz is now within striking distance of John Fetterman in Pennsylvania’s senate contest, and there’s every reason to believe he can close the gap.
A lot of Republicans have been down on Oz as a candidate, but I think that’s premature doomsaying. Senate polling in the past two cycles has been anabolic and heavily biased towards Democrats, as I have recently documented. We don’t know where the race is at all. This is the right time to raise the issue and give Fetterman a serious challenge.
At the time I wrote this, Pennsylvania didn’t have any legitimate polling. But now, we know where Pennsylvania stands. The second poll, which was conducted in just four days, shows Oz as in position to surpass Fetterman. Emerson released the first probable voter survey for the race. Here are the findings.
🚨Emerson PENNSYLVANIA POLL
SEN
(D. John Fetterman 48% (+4)
(R) Mehmet Oz 44%GOV
(D) Josh Shapiro 47% (+3)
(R) Doug Mastriano 44%PREZIGE
(R) Donald Trump 47% (+5)
(D) Joe Biden 42%GEN BALLOT
Republicans 47% (+1)
Democrats at 46%1,034 LV | 08/22-23https://t.co/gecXlwdyfd pic.twitter.com/7TeZj4V30A
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 25, 2022
Despite being down, there’s a lot of good news in this latest poll for the doctor and former TV host. The last two cycles of senate polling have shown a notorious bias towards Democrats, as evidenced by the large underestimates made in estimating Democrat support.
Even ignoring that, Fetterman’s 48 percent rating means Oz can easily overtake him. It is a sign that you are starting to fear when your opponent crosses 50 percent. However, in this situation, even if undecideds decide to vote for the Republican party (a very common occurrence in the first mid-terms for a new President), then the Republican candidate has the potential of winning.
Then there’s the issue of Fetterman’s health following his massive stroke. He recently made his second campaign “appearance” of the cycle, and it was an absolute trainwreck. Really, it’s to the point where I’m uncomfortable making fun of him. Rather, it’s just sad and wrong that he’s continuing to be pushed as a candidate for the US senate in this condition.
Fetterman sounds horrible. It’s obvious that Fetterman is not well. Joe Biden sounds like a Rhode Scholar. pic.twitter.com/vcZ5f7GhBo
— Curtis Houck (@CurtisHouck) August 23, 2022
It is worth noting that Fetterman spoke only for 4 minutes. The clip has been cut to just under 2 minutes. Fetterman cannot debate. The first one is scheduled for early September and Fetterman has yet to commit to it, and his condition is not something that’s going to get better quickly. Heck, that’s assuming it ever gets better. It’s possible, perhaps even probable that he suffered permanent damage from the stroke he had.
To say Oz has already shown major signs of life late in August, before the campaign season heats up. What happens when Fetterman doesn’t show up for the first debate and Oz is standing there alone? What happens as it becomes clearer and clearer that Fetterman is not physically capable of doing the job he’s applying for with voters? In other words, there’s every reason to believe the dynamics of this race can shift further into Oz’s favor. It’s not too late to save the world. Continue to push.