Normally on CNN, you get their usual tiresome pablum about the Capitol riot, how Republicans are supposedly a danger to America, how in reality Americans have it better right now than they think they do, how Joe Biden has allegedly put us “back” on the right track, etc.
Sometimes, however, the reality of cable news networks can be imposed upon them. On Wednesday, CNN’s senior data reporter Harry Enten explained how polling trends are leading to dire situations for Democrats. underestimatingBased on the historical performance of the GOP in midterm elections when we had a Democratic president, the expected red wave for Republicans for November is likely to be a result.
During a segment on Jake Tapper’s “The Lead” program, a very sour-looking Tapper fretted about polling showing a red wave was coming and asked Enten if there was any way the data could actually be underestimating the outlook for one party or the other.
Enten stated that there was likely to be underestimating for Republicans, despite Tapper giving a disappointing response.
“So, if we were in fact to say, OK, we think it’s under estimating one side, I would think it would be underestimating Republicans. Here’s why. Take a look at the July 27 House polling versus the November national vote, in midterm cycles where there’s a Democratic president, we’ll go back since 1994, right? We see some blue, some Democratic leads from 1994 to 1994 and a tie in 1998. Republicans are plus three.
Look at the November polling results. Each year the Republicans outperformed the July polling. And the average shift in November polling from July to November was 6 points for Republicans. How could that happen? Take a look here, the shift in party identification margin, because remember, it’s not all registered voters were interested in, its actual midterm voters. And if we look at every single election since 1978, with a Democratic president, there has been a shift in the party margin, party ID margin, more Republicans turnout on election day compared to what the actual registered voters are in midterm elections when there’s a Democratic president.”
“So Democrats should be looking at November in sheer terror?” Tapper wondered.
Enten spoke to the man as softly and gently as possible.
“I would not be a big fan of what’s going to happen in November if I were a Democrat, and I had a crystal ball,” Enten answered. “And we can just look at straight history, right, the White House Party loses four or more seats in House midterms since 1870. Thirty-five out of 38 times, that has been the case, the White House Party has lost four or more seats.”
The only time it hasn’t happened, Enten noted, was when the president had a high approval rating going into the midterms.
“And the only times in polling history in which they didn’t, in fact, lose four or more seats, 1998 and 2002, look at the president’s approval rating 64 percent, 66 percent,” Enten said. “Joe Biden’s approval rating at this point, Jake, is just 38 percent. It doesn’t look anything like those years.”
That is putting the “ow” in “ouch” for Democrats, y’all. Watch:
Enten also looked at the primary turnout figures for Republicans and Democrats in this election cycle, compared to 2018, in June. Enten found that Republicans had a significantly higher turnout than the Democrats (which was lower) by nearly double the amount. “You know something’s cooking,” he observed about Republican turnout:
CNN’s Harry Enten: Republican primary turnout is up by 29% compared to 2018 — while Democrat turnout is down.
When you observe a rise in this way, it’s a sign that something is cooking. pic.twitter.com/4yFvPpI4jG
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) June 23, 2022
Between news of the recession, the continued rise in inflation along with rising interest rates, it’s hard to anticipate any scenario where Democrats come out of this even breaking even (though some media outlets are trying really, really hard to spin it otherwise).
The forecast is not just stormy for Democrats; it appears as though an outright political tsunami is about to hit them – and they only have themselves to blame.
Related: ‘Dems in Disarray’ in Full Swing as Adam Schiff Goes Rogue on Joe Biden in a Very Public Way
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