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Airbase in Russian-Occupied Crimea Hit by Devastating Ukrainian Attack – Opinion

By Pluralist / August 9, 2022

Massive explosions ripped through a Russian military base in the occupied Crimea on Tuesday. It was located 165 miles away from Odesa (the nearest Ukrainian-controlled territory). Russians claim there is no evidence of an explosion, but that it was just routine ammunition. The Ukrainian statement is a bit more obtuse, “a device exclusively of Ukrainian manufacture was used.”

It is home to many of the attacks on Ukrainian forces. The airfield was home to more than 20 aircraft, as satellite imagery revealed hours prior.

The video that emerged shows the Su-24 Fencer all weather attack aircraft being destroyed, but not enough to provide any kind of battle damage assessment.

Nearly a mile from the blast area, buildings were damaged by the blast.

According to reports, a large traffic jam has formed at Kerch Bridge which crosses the Kerch Strait that separates Russian territory from the occupied Crimea. The tweet is wrong about the distance, which is why you don’t take anything at face value.

What caused these explosions?

I think it is safe to rule out any kind of “industrial accident” scenario such as the Russians are trying to spin. While there were disasters similar to this in the past (see Texas City and Port Chicago), it is clear that these blasts were deliberately created.

As an Army guy, I’d like to make a case for partisan forces led by Ukrainian special forces. I think the simultaneous explosions and the location and type of target mitigate against people being able to get in and out of multiple ammunition storage facilities without a “close encounter of the worst kind.”

A strike with precision-guided munition is possible, but it’s unlikely. Air defense is very intense in this area and at other facilities of the occupied Crimea. In defense of the air base, no missiles were fired and no sound was made by jet aircraft. It seems unlikely that non-stealth planes will get close enough for this attack to go unrecognized and engaged.

A precision strike with missiles is a limited attack that can be carried out by only two systems. This attack can be executed by two different systems. Hrim 2Short-range ballistic missile KorshunCruise missiles are not yet ready to be used.

Army Tactical Missile System – ATACMS

ATACMS, as far as we are aware, is not currently in play. It is however launched from M-270 MLRS, M-142 HIMARS, which has caused speculations that the missile was actually used. Ukraine requested the missile but was not granted. I’m only bringing it up because I’ve seen a lot of claims that this was an ATACMS strike. A strike by ATACMS would be similar to this. ATACMS’s disadvantage is the inability to activate air defense systems. We need to find another explanation.

OTR-21 Tochka

OTR-21 is a possible candidate TochkaThe SS-21 Scarab is a NATO-designated missile. It is a short-range ballistic missile, but today’s strike was well within its operational radius. It is technically possible to have simultaneous impacts with the Tochka. The sound is what is lacking. The sound signature of an inbound Tochka can be very high and supersonic. Like the ATACMS, its arrival should’ve triggered air raid warnings and been engaged by surface-to-air missiles. These missiles can theoretically be engaged by the S-400 system. It is similar to a mental-challenged version of Patriot.

R-360 Neptune Cruise Missile

The Neptune cruise missile leaped upon the world stage in April when it was credited with sinking the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, the MoskvaBREAKING Russian Flagship sinks while being towed to port

It was originally designed to be an anti-ship missile. However, the system has since been improved and an inertial guide package added that allows it to operate in a land attack mode. It can travel approximately 180 miles.

Neptune may have been used because of three things. The simultaneous impacts are a hallmark of cruise missile targeting; Neptune’s flight profile is about 15 feet above the ground, and it would not have triggered air defense systems, and the statement by the anonymous Ukrainian official that the weapon used was made in Ukraine.

Impact

We’ll have to wait a few days to see how this shakes out. We’ll know much more about the damage inflicted after commercial satellites make another pass. It could be Russia’s largest one-day loss of aircraft since World War II. Russia’s reaction has so far been mixed. Moscow’s official response is that it was an accident. Russian entertainment and social media personalities have a very different perspective.

It is important to consider the political consequences of what will happen next. Russia’s official refusal to recognize the attack by its propagandists will cause it to lose credibility. If it acknowledges the attack and doesn’t do something big, it has basically countenanced the expansion of the theater of war to include Ukraine and tacitly admitted Crimea is not really part of Russia.

This week is sure to be interesting.

 

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Pluralist

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