Did a Quickly Deleted Essay in Russian Media Explain What Vladimir Putin Wants Russia to Gain From the Ukraine Invasion? – Opinion

One of the questions asked over and over about Putin’s callous invasion of an inoffensive neighbor, an invasion that is mysteriously rationalized by an amazing number of people on the right who were apoplectic over Trudeau’s brutality with the Freedom Convoy, is what was his objective. It’s obvious that he was torqued about Ukraine flirting with EU and NATO membership, but if he wanted regime change, a few million dollars, an AstroTurfed mob, and a GRU or Spetsznaz hit squad could have accomplished that (look at how easily Putin installed his previous stooge, Yanukovych) with much less melodrama and loss of life.

There are many people whose intellectual curiosity can be satisfied by the simple statement, “He is a Bad Person therefore he does Bad Things.”

— Michael Malice (@michaelmalice) February 27, 2022

I understand that the man wants Ukraine to have a puppet government.
The key is to do it in an international manner that’s recognized at the least. This would make him seem less vulnerable to invasion (even though it comes with huge costs).

— Michael Malice (@michaelmalice) February 27, 2022

Many speculate that Putin launched the invasion in warning of any potential NATO member that NATO wouldn’t help.

Good questions. If we don’t understand what motivated Putin to engage in this adventure, it becomes much more difficult to anticipate and deter future instances of him acting out.

The next section, I believe, will fill in the gaps on the reasons for the invasion of Ukraine. I present it with grave reservations because I’m not all that familiar with the sources and am relying on the credibility of  Christo Gorzev, an award-winning investigative journalist who is now the Executive Director of Bellingcat. Allegedly, the Russians have accused Bellingcat of being a front for Western intelligence; I don’t have an opinion on that. Their coverage of the sinking of Ukrainian Airlines flight PS752 was my sole experience. I found them so pro Iran that it made me wonder if perhaps they were under retainer. Here’s the deal.

..this essay was apparently written for a scenario where Russian armed forces had taken over Kyiv and subjugated the country…Which didn’t actually happen. Then, what was the reaction of state news agency? The article was deleted as though it had never been published.

— Christo Grozev (@christogrozev) February 27, 2022

Okay, it’s possible to assume that this error was an early editorial oversight and that the essay didn’t reflect the State view. EXCEPT. The same essay was broadcast on state-run television channels, including @SputnikInt : https://t.co/ZSGKumbl46

— Christo Grozev (@christogrozev) February 27, 2022

This toast was intended to honor a Greater Russia outcome, which never occurred. Here’s the plan the author had – and apparently, was seen as endorseable by state media: pic.twitter.com/UoGPTIaEIh

— Christo Grozev (@christogrozev) February 27, 2022

On Saturday, however, it appeared in three Russian publications, Sputnik included. After that, it vanished without warning. You can read the archive.org version here; I’ve provided some key snippets below.

We are witnessing a new world emerge before our very eyes. Russia’s military operation in Ukraine has ushered in a new era – and in three dimensions at once. Fourth, there is the internal Russian. Here begins a new period both in ideology and in the very model of our socio-economic system – but this is worth talking about separately a little later.

Russia is restoring its unity – the tragedy of 1991, this terrible catastrophe in our history, its unnatural dislocation, has been overcome. Although it was at great expense, the tragedy of the virtual civil war caused by brothers who were separated from their Ukrainian and Russian armies are continuing to be a source of conflict. However, there won’t be any more Ukraine that is anti-Russian. Russia is restoring its historical fullness, gathering the Russian world, the Russian people together – in its entirety of Great Russians, Belarusians and Little Russians. This would mean that if we were to abandon this and allow the temporary division of Russia to hold for many centuries, not only would we betraying the memory of our forefathers, but our descendants would curse us for permitting the destruction of Russian land.

…
Now this problem is gone – Ukraine has returned to Russia. It does not necessarily mean its statehood is going to be lost, it just means that the country will be reorganized and reestablished in its original state as a part of Russia. How will Russia-CSTO/Eurasian Union (or the Union State of Russia or Belarus) fix their alliance? After the ending of the anti-Russian history of Ukraine, this will be determined. The Russian people are now divided.

And here begins the second dimension of the coming new era – it concerns Russia’s relations with the West. The Russian world is not Russia. It’s three countries, Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine acting together in geopolitical terms. These relations have entered a new stage – the West sees the return of Russia to its historical borders in Europe . He is indignant, but he also knows that this could not have been otherwise.

…
Because the construction of a new world order – and this is the third dimension of current events – is accelerating, and its contours are more and more clearly visible through the spreading cover of Anglo-Saxon globalization. A multipolar world has finally become a reality – the operation in Ukraine is not capable of rallying anyone but the West against Russia. Because the rest of the world sees and understands perfectly well – this is a conflict between Russia and the West, this is a response to the geopolitical expansion of the Atlanticists, this is Russia’s return of its historical space and its place in the world.

Amazing article. The reasons for ‘reuniting Ukraine’ with Russia are said to be not simply geopolitical, but to heal Russian self-esteem and identity, and to show the rest of the world that Western domination is over.

— Anna Rotkirch (@AnnaRotkirch) February 27, 2022

As I’ve noted a couple of times, my professional assessment is that Russia thought the Ukraine operation would be over by Happy Hour on Friday. They were working to a very tight schedule that included the fall of Ukraine’s government and collapse of its armed forces as well as the passiveness of the Ukrainian people. This article could have been synchronized with photos taken in Kiev once a new government was established. When that didn’t happen, Russia acted like CNN covering up a mistake.

The content of the essay fits in very well with what we’ve seen from Russia for the past few years. It is more consistent with my views yesterday that Putin’s essay about a united Russia and Ukraine. This is a quote from Putin’s Threats to Sweden and Finland Are Much More Real Than They Are Being Given Credit For; “If you think the goal is a reconstituted USSR, I believe you have it wrong. Russia of Nicholas I is his goal. He’s not interested in Potemkin Soviet Socialist Republics. He sees Ukraine and Belarus, and Moldova as integral parts of Greater Russia.”

Also, it is interesting to note that Putin targets the whole international security system as it exists since 1945. In fact, he’s actually trying to reestablish the security environment as it was on the eve of World War I with multiple centers of gravity and endless opportunities for Russia to expand her influence into areas where NATO has frozen her out.

I’m sure we’ll see more on this over the next days; if it turns out to be accurate, we’ve had a window open into Putin’s thinking that clarifies what his endgame is. It remains to be determined if Joey SoftServe or the White Rage Warriors can handle it.