Wishful Thinking Aside, Putin Will ‘Win’ in the End — but at What Cost? – Opinion

As a longtime political pundit, I’ve written untold numbers of op-eds about which I hoped to be proved wrong. This is one. Thing is, it’s not going to happen. Despite all of the wishful thinking and glomming onto glimmers of hope, Vladimir Putin’s brutal takeover of Ukraine is going to happen.

Like in done deal. 

Why? Because he must. Take a look at All costs.

It is now a question of what?Are the potential costs to Putin and Russia of a pyrrhic victory over an independent democratic country that has threatened nobody, least of which Putin’s Russia?

Putin’s cost of defeat would undoubtedly include loss of his (dictator) job, any hope of a political future, and potentially far worse. Recall that the Russian dictators who are angry tend to make a lot of mistakes. Russian dictatorship anger and Russian history has also shown us when totalitarian regimes kick Russian dictators to the curb, they don’t tend to look kindly on the Recently started.

Is this why I am so sure Putin will win? Let’s start with the fact that he has never lost a war.

To Donald Trump’s point during his Saturday CPAC address, America and “the world” have been slapping sanctions on Putin throughout his “presidency” (vice-grip on Russia and its people) for more than 20 years. For Less than naught. In fact, each hollow sanction is a waste of time. EmpowerPutin will take on MoreCalculated risks are better than none.

Newsweek reported that Putin won in Crimea, Georgia and Syria in his 20 years of power. He has succeeded by giving Russian forces clear, achievable, military objectives (even if those military objectives were to ultimately crush adversaries) that would allow him to declare victory, credibly — and this is critical — The eyes of Russian people. A wary and watching world. He is not likely to do anything different with his most recent initiative in Ukraine.

While I’m fully aware that times and circumstances change, I’m also cognizant of the reality that the stakes for Putin are at this very moment (and the next “this very moment,” and…) higher than they have ever been. Putin is also more aware of this.

Again, history.

Russian bears were backed into corners by humans who pushed them. It is really don’t want to be backed into, with all the chips on the table, they have done what they needed to do — including Mass-murdering their people. “Uncle Joe” Stalin killed anywhere from an estimated 20 million Russians — and that estimate came from a major Soviet newspaper, via The New York Times in 1989 — to 60 million, or more.

Putin never agreed to the post-Soviet Eastern Europe parameters. He has infamously called the 1991collapse of the USSR “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe” of the 20th century. That is the real question. It could be catastrophicFor whom? Vladimir Putin and Soviet-style communism are the answers.

Putin is also most afraid of the following: democracyFormer Soviet Union satellite states, the possibility of a democratic Ukraine is a nightmare for an old KGB agent. That reality must be ended, and whatever miscalculations Putin made in planning his invasion of Ukraine — it was supposed to be a quick victory — have only served to steel his resolve.

So what cost “victory”?

Which each passing day, Putin’s inevitable win is diminishing. People in Ukraine are resisting the inevitable and are displaying extraordinary acts of courage that are unimaginable for those who have never experienced what is happening to them. Of course, this is not meant to be linked with the combative armed forces. They are winning the admiration of the world — leaving Putin seething and personally diminished in the eyes of the world. Putin wanted to welcome Ukrainians into his plans for Ukraine. That did not happen and it never will — making the Russian dictator even more dangerous and unpredictable. However, heYou will prevail. 

The little dictator delusionally fancies himself a leader of great stature — admired around the world. However, as his eventual win — and his stature — continue to diminish, he will increasingly be shunned on the world stage. His international isolation will result.

In the short run, Putin has done more to unify NATO allies than they could have ever hoped to do, themselves; Western European leadership is weak, and Joe Biden is a feckless joke who continues to obsess about “mask and vax” nonsense and pretend-white supremacy, rather than stand up to Vladimir Putin as he gobbles up another independent country.

Meanwhile, on the Russian home front, as noted by The New York Times, the “economic and societal turmoil wrought by Mr. Putin’s invasion are becoming increasingly difficult to obscure.”

One-time ubiquitous flights to Europe were cancelled by airline. As the demand for money soared by 58 percent, the Central Bank had to scramble to issue ruble bills. Economists warned of more inflation, greater capital flight, and slower growth; and the S&P credit rating agency downgraded Russia to “junk” status.

The Kremlin is trying to hide the reality of Putin’s attack on Ukraine from the Russian people, but the Economic realityIt has been evident already and continues to get worse every day. The Times

Russians were stunned by how fast the economic consequences of the war had been felt. On Saturday, the ruble traded at 84 rubles against the dollar, compared with 74 just a few weeks earlier. That sent prices for imports surging, while sanctions on Russia’s largest banks wreaked havoc in the financial markets and new export restrictions promised to scramble supply chains.

Bottom line:

While the wishful thinkers point to “all of the above” —and then some — as “proof” that Putin’s efforts are doomed in Ukraine, that “all of the above” and then someOnly Putin can be forced to get in.

The Russian bear has to escape from his corner, which he calculated was the best, as soon as possible, crush Ukraine and declare victory while pretending it never took place.

But it did happen, and the inevitable “victorious” Russian dictator will have lost his Russian dictator prowess — both at home and around the world.

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