US Should Be Cautious as Russia Raises Tensions Over Lithuania – Opinion

Over the weekend, Europe’s checkerboard got more complicated as sanctions on Ukraine continued to move from talk to action.  This latest EU round bans shipping products like coal, metals and construction materials between EU countries and Russia.

Kaliningrad in Russia, which is the Russian capital and the home of around 500,000 Russians, was the Russian Baltic Fleet’s headquarters. It was a small territory that the Soviet Union seized at the close of World War Two. Kaliningrad, which was an isolated island with the Baltic Sea to one side, and now NATO members Poland and Lithuania on the opposite, became isolated from Russia following the Cold War.

Kaliningrad’s position is similar to That of Crimea, the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea fleet, which was also geographically isolated from mainland Russia by Ukraine until it was annexed by the Vladimir Putin’s Russian Federation with operations beginning in February 2014 and a treaty signed by the 18^thMarch

The rail line that ran through Lithuania was used to transport goods from Kaliningrad and mainland Russia for many years. It is now an independent country and member of NATO and the EU.

So is this the latest crisis.

The West is moving away from the preparations phase and into the implementation phase of sanctions that were imposed in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This would see goods and services physically limited.

Lithuania began to impose sanctions on the export of goods by rail from its territory to Russia starting in June 2022. Lithuania has stated that it is only restricting items that are on the EU’s sanction list per the timeline of restrictions implementation; the transport of people and all other non-sanctioned goods remain free to move.

Josep Borrell from the EU’s foreign policy department stated that Vilnius has been complying with the European Union’s sixth round of sanctions. Borrell is quoted as saying, “Lithuania has not taken any unilateral national restrictions and only applies the European Union sanctions.”

The Russians seem to be unprepared for this. Kaliningrad Governor Anton Alikhanov has noted that Russia had begun operating two ferries between Kaliningrad and St. Petersburg to handle the restricted traffic but would not have an additional seven ferries in operation to compensate for Lithuania’s rail restrictions until later this year.

Moscow summons diplomats from Lithuania and the European Union for a discussion on the subject.

Moscow also does saber-rattling. On Monday, the Russian foreign ministry stated that: “If in the near future cargo transit between the Kaliningrad region and the rest of the territory of the Russian Federation through Lithuania is not restored in full, then Russia reserves the right to take actions to protect its national interests.”

Moscow has made this claim before. Moscow has said this before, when it annexed Crimea’s Russian Navy Base in 2014. This act ultimately led to war with Ukraine.

The trouble with this naval base on the Baltic Sea is that taking and holding territory to “protect its national interests” goes through land that triggers NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense pact, even if Lithuania, like Ukraine, is a former Soviet republic.

My RedState colleague Streiff also published a piece on this development this morning: Lithuania Enforces EU Sanctions on Kaliningrad and Putin’s Toadies Lose Their Minds – RedState

I’m a bit more focused on how Lithuania is a potential matchstick. What is already happening in Lithuania is more dangerous for international peace than the events in Ukraine.

Ukraine technically remains an non-aligned nation. Ukraine isn’t yet a member either of the European Union nor the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. This means that all sides have the right to live in the country and get away with murder.

It is clear that the Russians have the edge in the war, despite the extensive media coverage about Ukraine’s bravery in fighting against Russia. The battle for Fulda Gap was fought earlier in the year. NATO’s defense strategy, which used man-portable anti tank missiles to stop a mobile army of tanks from moving forward successfully stopped them.  Western militaries rejoiced in the success of the US TOW missile, which was first developed in Vietnam.

That phase has now ended.  It has transitioned to the defense of Ukrainian cities against something the Russian army is particularly good at — the meat grinding siege craft of rolling artillery barrages. Slowly but surely, the Ukrainians buckle. Russians are also learning from their own logistical mistakes the importance interdiction supply lines between West and Ukrainian Army. The outcome of the current conflict will not be good. Many lives are lost in Ukraine until an agreement is reached between the West and the Zelensky government.

The next step is to pick up the pieces from the Ukraine mess. The restoration of the European economy landscape’s damage will require decades. An animus between East and West will continue to fuel tensions and threaten the political stability of both the Ukrainian and Russian sides.

It is important to ask: Can it be ended before any other points on the European Checkerboard explode? US and EU as well as Russia must navigate the tension induced by sanctions with care. If something goes wrong, Lithuania immediately triggers the calamitous Treaties.  It will be a risky flashpoint as the year progresses. This is the order Sarajevo was to start World War One. There are other fractures that could emerge in Russia and the West.

It shifts the emphasis from Ukraine’s survival to Europe and America’s well-being. How quickly the mainstream media figures it out and starts to ask hard questions, I don’t know.