US and NATO Should Demand Russia Dismantle Tactical Nuke Arsenal in Order to Lift Sanctions – Opinion

NATO is still paralyzed as it meets in Brussels. NATO and the United States are still paralyzed by the fear of Russian President Vladimir Putin using tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine. This is despite their efforts to address the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine.  The Washington Examiner summarized the worry as “Allies see risk that Putin thinks he can win a nuclear war against NATO.” The article summarizes NATO’s concern with this quote,

“Nuclear war is impossible to be won. … This is the rule of warfare, that, actually, it’s the last resort,” a senior European official said. “But, unfortunately, Russians actually somehow behave too lightly about it. And that causes the biggest trouble for us.”

While Russia insists that it would only employ nuclear weapons in the event of an “existential threat”, the actions of Mr. Putin in Ukraine, and the setbacks he has suffered as the war has bogged down, could threaten to end his regime. The difficult question for NATO is: Does regime change constitute an “existential threat” to the Russian Federation?

Despite, Mr. Putin’s nuclear saber-rattling as he began what he thought would be an easy takeover of Ukraine, I would argue that his setbacks in this misadventure do not constitute an “existential threat” to his country.

I think it’s vital for the US and NATO to make the message very clear that the liberal democracies of the West do not wish the Russian Federation or the Russian culture to perish. It’s important to get the message to ordinary Russians that the West knows that even if Mr. Putin’s reign ends, Russia will go on.

Russia must get on the right path of flourishing in the international community. The West doesn’t believe in isolated spheres or influence as Mr. Putin hopes to shape the world. We don’t want Russia to return to its former poverty level after the Soviet Union collapsed.

I think it’s also important to get the message to Russians that, given the damage Mr. Putin has inflicted on his own nation militarily and economically, realistically, his country will only get back to where it should be if Mr. Putin passes the baton to someone new.

Vladimir Putin is a reckless caretaker for a nuclear arsenal. This is what he has shown to the entire world. 

By using his nuclear weapons to threaten NATO and the United States (both nuclear power), he was able to fool the West into passively supporting him invading Ukraine. These are not signs of a thoughtful leader.

Liberal democracies in the West heard him rant loud and clear.  NATO and the US made every effort not to provoke Putin, whose rhetoric was insane.  However, it didn’t stop the West from backing Ukraine to resist the Russian invasion. The West was energized by it, and that is because of what? The West doesn’t like to be bullied.  There are now debilitating sanctions against Russia that isolate it from its most profitable trading partners.

It is important to make it very clear that the United States wants the sanctions lifted and for the world to heal this terrible gap. We should be clear, however that we must also emphasize the fact that the world will have a difficult time undoing the changes made by Mr. Putin to get around his country.

Just under a month ago, the war in Ukraine could have been avoided by all sides calming down and agreeing to forego, or at least postpone, Ukraine’s consideration for entry into the NATO alliance. You could wait a decade. The global economy would continue as it was if there had been a diplomatic agreement. The world was not able to prevail on cooler heads and must now accept that Russia’s offer of withdrawal from NATO membership by Ukraine will not be enough to allow it to engage in real negotiations to end this conflict.

While it may be slow to bring down the Ukrainian army, the economic and military cost of the Russian Federation is not worth the risk, at least from western perspectives. Mr. Putin’s media is selling his vision of a 21st-century version of another Great Patriotic War to his people. So far, it’s selling to the older generation. Younger Russians aren’t so sure. Russians of middle class want to go. Oligarchs would like their assets back. Already a month later, there are signs that Russia is feeling the pressure.

Russia and Ukraine may still come to an understanding to resolve their direct conflict.  But Mr. Putin’s problems won’t end when he tells his troops to cease fire in Ukraine.  He will then have to negotiate with what he calls the “Empire of Lies” to lift sanctions.

My view is that the West needs to pay the price of destroying his strategic nuclear arsenal.  Three things are required by the West.

First, Russia must pledge to abandon the ridiculous doctrine of “escalate to de-escalate” that contemplates the first use of a tactical nuclear weapon as an instrument of terror.  That is exactly what the US did with Japan. That does not mean it’s ok for anyone to ever do it again.  Just as Russia demands Ukraine not join NATO, the West should demand that Russia should forever reject first-use strategies such as “escalate to de-escalate.” We should demand that Russia explicitly join the US and NATO in signing on to a no-first-use policy.

To lift sanctions, Russia must unilaterally establish a parity policy of tactical warheads for its nuclear arsenal. The European theatre should have a lower number of tactical nukes than the US or NATO in that region. As part of the lifting of sanctions, I think the West must also ask Russia to reduce the amount of its tactical nuclear weapons in Eastern military districts, so that they are comparable with Chinese. There’s no reason not to use sanctions leverage to comprehensively reduce global nuclear escalation risk everywhere.

The third is that Russia must agree to allow the West to develop and deploy an effective shield system capable of both intercepting and attacking ballistic, cruise and hypersonic missile threats, as well as weapons capable of being delivered by artillery and nuclear bombers.

NATO and the USA should continue working on this system even though economic sanctions are still in place.  Russia has proven that it uses the nuclear cards.  As Mr. Putin put it, “That line has been crossed.”

In the context of the West shield mission we must announce our intention to declare the use any nuclear weapon against any target as a crime that humanity needs to be protected from. If it is within striking range of this shield, any such weapon will be considered legitimate.

Also, we should announce that NATO and the United States intend to make this technology available for sharing with other countries. It is our goal to make any aggressor believe their attack will succeed without being challenged.

A final note. The US has been neglecting its strategic nuclear arsenal for far too long.  Simply put, we left a gap in our arsenal that allowed for power projection vulnerabilities which Mr. Putin could exploit. An investment error created a weakness in our force structure, favoring Russia’s credibility as an intimidation tool.  The US made a mistake of national interests by allowing this to happen. This is one reason why NATO Summit attendees have so much fear about Russian nuclear weapons.