Nate Silver, founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight, responded on Monday to a tweet about the seeming discrepancy between public outcry over Trump administration immigration policy that has resulted in separating immigrant children from their parents and President Donald Trump’s near all-time high approval ratings.
Political paradox: Trump job approval/right track near all-time highs despite WH getting killed on its treatment of families crossing the border (and low approval % on that front).
But the cultural issues drive both parties’ bases, and the D base is winning the cultural fight.
— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) June 18, 2018
According to RealClearPolitics’ polling data aggregator, Trump’s approval rating is currently around 43 percent. A recent Gallup poll shows his approval rating is at 87 percent within the Republican party. However, Silver argues that “it will take a week or two” to see if the Trump administration’s policy will impact his approval ratings.
Pundits need to remember that members of the general public don’t churn through political news as quickly as they do. Also, even if there’s an opinion shift, it takes several days for polls to be conducted and then released publicly.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) June 18, 2018
Silver emphasized that, while Trump’s approval rating has hit a record high, the media coverage “is just ramping up.” Even a major opinion shift — as seen in labeling the immigration policy as child abuse, drawing comparisons to Nazi Germany — will take several days, if not weeks, to show up in polls.
Silver famously correctly predicted the outcomes in 49 out of 50 states in the 2008 election.
Trump is riding a high: Silver acknowledged that the Singapore summit story was “a good one” for Trump.
According to a CNN poll conducted by SSRS, 52 percent of Americans were satisfied with how the summit went. Eighty-five percent of Republicans were happy after the summit, with 52 percent of independents, and 28 percent of Democrats saying the same.